Steven Kwan wasn’t looking at the American League Central standings in early July when the Cleveland Guardians were eight games under .500, in fourth place and 15.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers.
The All-Star outfielder wasn’t about to look on Wednesday night, even though the Guardians have staged the biggest comeback in baseball history.
Cleveland moved into sole possession of first place with a 5-1 victory over Detroit and became the first major league team to overcome a deficit of 15.5 games and take the lead in either division or league play, beating the Detroit Tigers 5-1 on Wednesday night.
Cleveland (86-72) have a one-game lead over Detroit (85-73) with four games to play. They also own the tiebreaker because they lead the head-to-head series between the teams this season. The last time the Guardians had sole possession of the division was on 22 April, when they were 14-9 and a half-game ahead of the Tigers.
The 1914 Boston Braves were 15 games back in the National League on 4 July and rallied to win by 10.5 games according to Elias. Since baseball went to division play in 1969, the biggest deficit overcome was 14 games by the 1978 New York Yankees to win the AL East.
“Ignorance is bliss. You kind of just keep your head down and don’t worry about those kind of things,” Kwan said. “It is a long, long season, so I think if you get caught up in those things early on, you’re going to be doomed.
“Just keep pushing, keep doing what we do. Can’t jinx it either. I mean, we’ve been doing what we’ve been doing for so long, it’d be a little silly to look forward too far.”
According to FanGraphs, the Guardians had a 2.9% chance to make the postseason and a 0.2% chance to win the division on 1 September. After improving to an MLB-best 18-5 in September, they have a 92.3% chance for the postseason and 80.7% to take the division for the second straight year.
“It feels good, but there’s no prize for having that spot today. I’m really proud of what our guys have done to get themselves back into it and give us a chance to get into the postseason,” manager Stephen Vogt said. “We have a lot of work left to go. It’s exciting. Sure, we’re going to enjoy the win for a few hours, but we got another game tomorrow going to come out ready to go.”
As for the Tigers, they have to reflect on a painful decline and are on an eight-game losing streak.
“It’s painful,” Tigers manager AJ Hinch said after Wednesday’s loss. “I’m having a hard time coming up with words, and I know that’s not the norm. But what I’m seeing out of our team is not normal. But it’s our reality.”
A key to the Guardians’ hot September has been their pitching. The starting rotation has allowed two or fewer runs in 19 consecutive games, matching the 2019 Tampa Bay Rays and 1916 New York Giants for the second-longest streak since the mound was moved. The 1917 Chicago White Sox have the mark at 20, according to Elias.
Guardians starters are 12-0 with a 1.35 ERA during their 19-game run. Tanner Bibee improved to 3-0 in September, allowing only one run in six innings.
“I’ll be honest, I don’t think about the streak at any moment other than when you guys bring it up to me. We’re out here to win games each and every day, and those guys compete with each other,” Vogt said. “The truth is that when they take the mound, they want to give us a chance to win. And man, have they stepped up the last few weeks.”
The Guardians finish with Detroit on Thursday before hosting the Texas Rangers in the final regular-season series. The Tigers end their season with a tough series against the Boston Red Sox.
