Three weeks of college football down, and the race for the Heisman Trophy is even more wide open than it was at the start of the season, according to oddsmakers.
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is the new favorite for the award at several sportsbooks, with ESPN BET showing +850 odds as of Tuesday afternoon. At some other shops, though, Miami QB Carson Beck is the favorite, getting as short marketwide as +700 at BetMGM.
Either way, it’s the longest odds for a Heisman favorite at this point in the season since at least 2012, according to data compiled by ESPN Research from SportsOddsHistory.com; the previous longest favorite was LSU running back Leonard Fournette at +500 heading into Week 4. It’s largely in line with how bookmakers saw the Heisman race playing out, as Texas QB Arch Manning was the longest preseason favorite in over 15 years at +650.
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Manning’s odds to win the trophy have fallen precipitously amid struggles in his first three weeks as the full-time Longhorns starter, as he currently ranks tied for 15th on the board at +3000, per ESPN BET. Due to his name recognition and overall popularity, he is still the most-bet player in the market by tickets and handle at BetMGM and DraftKings, making him a liability with the books.
South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers also was a popular play for bettors before the season and is “currently our biggest liability for the Heisman market,” according to ESPN BET senior trading director Adrian Horton. After he was injured in the Gamecocks’ 31-7 loss against Vanderbilt, Sellers’ odds have lengthened all the way to +5000 from +1400 before the season. Cade Klubnik, who was the second favorite (+900) coming into the campaign, has seen his odds fall all the way to 100-1 amid poor play and a 1-2 record for his Clemson Tigers.
Aside from LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, who moved from last week’s favorite to tied for third on the board at +1300, the new crop of favorites features somewhat less liability for sportsbooks. Mateer, Beck and Oregon QB Dante Moore (also +1300) were not overly popular preseason plays and have not picked up a ton of momentum with bettors despite strong starts to the season. Moore, for example, is the 10th-most-bet player by handle at ESPN BET but does not even crack the top 10 at either BetMGM or DraftKings.
There are, however, two names to watch outside of the quarterback position as the Heisman race heats up. Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (+1800) and Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love (+6000) are both listed as significant liabilities at BetMGM, and Love, in particular, has gotten significant action at ESPN BET. “That will have us keeping a close eye on the Irish running back,” Horton said.
