Good morning. It’s been a torrid summer of getting screamed at, dumped on and generally run ragged by those who wouldn’t even be there without you. But enough about my paternity leave: today’s newsletter is about Keir Starmer’s wobbling Labour leadership, and the man some of his own MPs want to replace him in No 10.
In some ways, Andy Burnham is not an obvious candidate to replace Starmer: he is a throwback to a past Labour era, a figure once viewed as an uber-Blairite, and he’s not even an MP. But in the last couple of weeks, without any explicit challenge, the Greater Manchester mayor has been strikingly prominent. The resignation of senior aide Paul Ovenden yesterday, over offensive messages he sent about Diane Abbott in 2017, will have done little to soothe those sceptical of Starmer’s intent to use the visit of Donald Trump to reset his premiership – and story after story has suggested that Burnham is working quietly, but doggedly, to capitalise.
First, though, he has to find a seat. Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s political editor Pippa Crerar, is about Burnham’s mysterious manoeuvres – and what they might mean for Labour’s future. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Far right | Downing Street has fiercely condemned Elon Musk for using “dangerous and inflammatory” language, after he told a crowd of protesters in London that “violence is coming” and “you either fight back or you die”. Police are looking for 11 people suspected of committing violent disorder at the march and have charged eight others.
UK politics | The MP Danny Kruger has defected from the Conservatives to Reform UK, declaring the Tory party “is over” and Nigel Farage is the “new custodian” of conservatism and the political right’s “last hope” of governing Britain.
UK news | Constance Marten and Mark Gordon, who caused the death of their newborn baby after taking her to live in a tent in wintry conditions to evade social services, have each been sentenced to 14 years in prison.
Technology | Jamieson Greer, a US trade representative, said on Monday that Washington and Beijing have struck a framework agreement on transferring TikTok to US-controlled ownership.
Espionage | The UK government says it is “extremely disappointed” by a decision to drop charges of spying for China against two men, one of whom was a parliamentary aide. Prosecutor Tom Little told the Old Bailey that “we simply cannot continue to prosecute” Christopher Cash and Christopher Berry, without giving any reason for the decision.
In depth: ‘Rayner was the obvious successor on the soft left – that’s Burnham now’
Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner. Photograph: Temilade Adelaja/Reuters
Andy Burnham ran to be Labour leader in 2010, and again five years later, so it would be hard to say that his leadership ambitions now are completely opportunistic. “The thing that’s different about Burnham from most candidates is that he’s never denied it,” Pippa said. “The usual response if they’re asked is to say that there isn’t a vacancy. But he decided quite early on to be more honest about it. He’s said that he wouldn’t have run for leadership twice if he wasn’t interested in the job.”
In 2023, for example, he told the Daily Telegraph that he wanted Starmer to win the election – but that “I can foresee a day where I could return … if the party thinks well maybe it is your time, I wouldn’t turn away from that.”
That has always made him an anxiety-inducing blot on the landscape for the incumbent leader – but the road to No 10 is a very difficult one. “He probably has an idea of how it could work,” Pippa said. “But he doesn’t have complete control of how to make it a reality.”
Why is everyone suddenly talking about his prospects?
Angela Rayner’s cabinet departure has increased speculation over Starmer’s future, partly because of the questions it has raised about his judgment, alongside the disastrous handling of the Peter Mandelson scandal. But it has also opened up space for Burnham, if he can find a way back into parliament – because the two of them occupied the same “soft left” lane of the party, the fuzzily defined territory occupied by those who were unconvinced by Jeremy Corbyn but are turned off by Starmer’s attempts to compete with Reform and the Conservatives on immigration and welfare.
“It suddenly becomes much more realistic with her out of the picture,” Pippa said. “She was the most obvious successor, and she is on the soft left of the party. That’s Burnham’s constituency now.”
What kind of leader would he be?
When Burnham ran for leader in 2015, he missed the mood of the party membership – which, you will remember, chose Jeremy Corbyn in a landslide – as calamitously as anyone. Where Corbyn ran on an uncompromising anti-austerity message, Burnham launched his campaign at the London headquarters of accounting giant EY (previously Ernst and Young) with a promise to support welfare cuts.
He strikes a very different tone today. “Running Greater Manchester has fundamentally reshaped his politics,” Pippa said. “He’s seen up close how housing and transport interventions can change people’s lives.” Cynics might ask if he has also reached a different view of where the political opening now lies. As a former shadow cabinet member told me for this 2020 piece: “One of Andy’s gifts is to convince himself that the best thing for him also happens to be the right thing to do.”
Burnham has been setting the tone of a leadership bid for a while – most notably in May, at an event hosted by soft-left pressure group Compass, when he argued that if the opposition at the next election will be “the divisive, populist right”, then “we must be the unifying, popular left”. He opposed the government’s vexed welfare cuts bill, and has argued that the spate of St George’s flags appearing on roads across England are an attempt to “seek confrontation” – another sharp contrast with Starmer’s approach.
A new Compass-backed political network, Mainstream, launched last week – the day after Burnham appeared on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg to say that Starmer needed to start listening to Labour MPs and be “less factional and more pluralistic”. Mainstream has Burnham’s endorsement, and “it could be a vehicle to organise, fundraise and develop policy if he runs,” Pippa said.
While its policy offering is so far fairly scant, its website highlights Labour members’ support for a wealth tax and an end to the two-child benefit limit. Mainstream has also been strikingly hostile to Starmer’s leadership, accusing Starmer’s Labour of putting “party factions’ interest before your party and before the country” at a deniable degree of distance from Burnham himself.
What support does he have within the party?
If Burnham was looking for reasons to seek the leadership again, he would have found them in his popularity with Labour party members. Polls like this one regularly find him the most popular candidate, with a lead that Rayner’s exit is likely to have increased; he is also the most popular candidate among those who voted Labour at the last election.
To reach the membership stage of a leadership contest, Burnham would first have to secure the support of 20% of MPs – and not being in Westminster might put him at a disadvantage. “He has his supporters on the backbenches, but there’s not a campaign ready and waiting,” Pippa said.
But with candidates on the right like Wes Streeting looming, others might turn to Burnham: “If he looks like a winner and staves off something else, there are plenty who could live with him. I’ve spoken to women MPs who have really felt it needs to be a woman who now say, we need the best person available.”
What obstacles are in his way?
Only one, really, but it’s absolutely massive: to run for the leadership, he would first have to become an MP again – and Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney has exercised an iron grip over the party’s selection process through his allies on the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC).
If the leader’s position looked more secure, and Burnham had the leisure to wait for a seat to come up organically, it might be politically impossible to deny him one – but as it is, Burnham will probably have to admit that he is running with an eye on the leadership. He will also need the cooperation of a friendly Manchester MP ready to give up their seat (and their career) – before Christmas, if he doesn’t want to risk the bandwagon rolling on in unpredictable ways, or even Starmer’s resignation coming before he is in place to run.
“There are a couple of MPs who might stand down, perhaps in return for a future peerage,” Pippa said. (Graham Stringer and Andrew Gwynne, who was suspended last year over offensive WhatsApp messages, have both been mentioned.) “But it would still be incredibly difficult. Even with the vast majority of local party members behind [Burnham], McSweeney’s control of the NEC means that he can be blocked. Burnham can say that this a denial of democracy, but McSweeney is not likely to care.”
If he gets the nomination, some of the seats that might be options may also appear a lot less safe than they once did, with Reform doing well in Manchester and Nigel Farage beating his chest about the possibility of exacting a “humiliating” defeat.
Can they be overcome?
If Burnham can’t beat Reform in Manchester, you might argue, there’s not much point in him becoming leader anyway. “He is such a big name there, and there’s a huge amount of personal affection even among people disaffected with Labour,” Pippa said. “So I think he can overcome that threat if he gets the right seat.”
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McSweeney’s blocking ability could still be terminal to his prospects. But if the embattled chief of staff’s departure turns out to be the price of Starmer’s survival, it’s not at all clear what would happen to the faction he controls on the NEC – and if the body’s members conclude that the tide is going out on Starmer, his ability to control them might dissipate anyway.
“As long as he’s there and empowered, it’s very difficult for Burnham,” Pippa said. “But if that changes, or the NEC reaches the point of disillusionment with Starmer that some MPs are at, then all bets are off.”
What else we’ve been reading
An England flag attached to the Angel of the North statue in Gateshead. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian
British and English flags have started popping up across the nation. What’s the motivation behind their proliferation? Daniel Boffey speaks to those behind the movement. Aamna
Song-Chun Zhu went from an upbringing in rural China to leading one of the United States’ most eminent AI labs – and then suddenly returned to China in 2020. Chang Che’s long read tells the extraordinary story of “a life spent straddling two superpowers”, and the broader shift Zhu’s decision represents. Archie
This is a harrowing but important read about women being trafficked, enslaved and raped in a Colombian town ravaged by a fight for dominance between two militant groups. Aamna
British readers may not know the work of Robert Munsch – but those of us with a Canadian in our lives will know that he’s the world’s greatest children’s author. Even if you aren’t a fan yet, Katie Engelhart’s New York Times piece about how he has faced the onset of dementia is an astonishingly moving read. Archie
Just how sorry are you? If you want people to believe your sincerity, ensure your apology is as verbose as possible, according to a recent study. Aamna
Sport
Mondo Duplantis celebrates after winning gold and breaking the world record during the final. Photograph: Issei Kato/Reuters
Athletics | At the World Athletics Championship in Tokyo, Sweden’s Mondo Duplantis broke the men’s pole vault world record for a 14th time in his career. Meanwhile, Tanzania’s Alphonce Simbu snatched gold in a dramatic photo-finish to the men’s marathon.
Cycling | World Tour cycling teams may refuse to race against Israel-Premier Tech after the multiple protests during the Vuelta a España that exploded into street violence in Madrid on Sunday.
Rugby | England’s world player of the year, Ellie Kildunne, is expected to be ready to play against France in the Women’s Rugby World Cup semi‑final on Saturday after missing the 40-8 quarter-final win against Scotland on Sunday.
The front pages
Guardian front page Photograph: Guardian
The Guardian leads with “Crisis for PM grows as aide quits over lewd remarks about Abbott”. The i has “Starmer fights for his future as Mandelson row deepens – and key aide resigns”, while the Times goes with “Mandelson emails add to pressure on Starmer”. The Mail goes simply with “Meltdown!”
Ahead of the US president’s visit to the UK, the Telegraph reports “Trump to go easy on embattled Starmer”. The Financial Times says “Trump urges US companies to copy China in ditching quarterly reporting”. The Mirror reports “Hillsborough law unveiled”.
Today in Focus
Supporters of Tommy Robinson assemble for their march near Waterloo Station. Photograph: Guy Smallman/Getty Images
On the ground with Tommy Robinson’s new supporters
Who showed up for the biggest far-right rally in British history? Ben Quinn reports
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
Illustration: Ben Jennings/The Guardian
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Children enjoying a ‘midday meal’. Photograph: Tora Agarwala
India’s ambitious “midday meal” programme, known as PM Poshan, was launched to boost school enrolment. But in Laitsohpliah, a rural village in north-east India, its unique uptake is making waves.
The menu there is hyperlocal, using ingredients sourced from nearby farmers, many of them parents of pupils, while the rest comes from the school’s own kitchen garden.
“Our students don’t like skipping meals any more,” says headteacher Nestar Kharmawphlang, as his school serves the staple rice and dal alongside potatoes with east Himalayan chives, cured dry fish and sohryngkham, a wild berry pickle.
The shift is thanks to an initiative by the North East Society for Agroecology Support (Nesfas), which aims to make school lunches healthier, more sustainable and climate-resilient.
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