For Donald Trump, the priority was to avoid any distractions. But as he arrives for his second state visit to the UK – an unprecedented honour for a US president – the crisis engulfing Keir Starmer’s government threatens to overshadow the proceedings.
The circumstances of that crisis are especially awkward. Peter Mandelson was unceremoniously sacked as the UK’s ambassador to Washington on Thursday after emails were published in which he had urged his friend Jeffrey Epstein to fight for early release from prison in 2008.
For Trump, whose own friendship with Epstein has exposed him to damaging scrutiny, including from his own support base, there is no subject he wants to revisit less.
“Both sides will want to move on from Mandelson’s departure from Washington,” said Michael Martins, a former US official who worked at the embassy during Trump’s last state visit. “For President Trump, the most important thing will be the optics. He wants to look very presidential; he will make a big deal of meeting with the king and the monarchy more generally. First and foremost, he wants that element of imagery.”
There will be no shortage of the pomp and circumstance that Trump loves over his two-day visit. He and his wife, Melania, will be greeted with a ceremonial welcome and a guard of honour at Windsor Castle, where they will be hosted by King Charles, Queen Camilla, Prince William and Catherine, the Princess of Wales.
Trump will address a state banquet with tech bosses and senior cabinet ministers on Wednesday evening before travelling to Chequers on Thursday for a business reception, working lunch and press conference with the prime minister.
There will be military displays including a Red Arrows flypast, and fanfare over investment deals, including a US-UK technology partnership and civil nuclear agreement.
British armed forces rehearse at Wellington barracks in London on Friday. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA
Sophia Gaston, an analyst at the Centre for Statecraft and National Security at King’s College London, said: “Britain is one of the few countries the Trump administration takes seriously as a tech collaboration partner, and the decision to align more with American instincts on innovation than EU regulatory frameworks has been recognised in Washington.
“The primary objective of the state visit is to shore up the emotional connection the president holds with Britain, and the secondary objective is to demonstrate a modern geopolitical underpinning for the special relationship.”
Masked by the frenzied preparations is a massive hole in the government’s foreign policy armoury – at a time when foreign affairs is one of the few areas in which Starmer is widely seen to have performed well. Lord Mandelson’s exit leaves the government hosting a presidential state visit without a US ambassador, with the deputy, James Roscoe, stepping up in the interim.
British officials are fearful that Trump could take the opportunity to publicly opine on candidates for Mandelson’s successor. Several said the Trump administration remained fans of the former ambassador Karen Pierce, who has since taken up a role as UK envoy to the west Balkans. “There was definitely talk of keeping Karen for longer because she was so loved by that lot,” said one UK government source. Another said: “Trump’s people have already told the embassy and No 10 that they want Karen Pierce back.”
Pierce’s supporters believe she is out of favour with Downing Street because of her perceived closeness to Sue Gray, the former No 10 chief of staff who lost a power struggle with Starmer’s closest adviser, Morgan McSweeney. Frontrunners for the job include the former cabinet secretary Mark Sedwill and the outgoing head of MI6, Richard Moore. The national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, is also said to be in the frame.
UK ministers face another potential pitfall. Trump departs for London as his administration reels from the killing of his influential ally, the rightwing activist Charlie Kirk. Kirk’s shooting has fuelled warnings on the right about intolerance and the erosion of free speech. Were Trump in a belligerent move, he could – like his vice-president, JD Vance – take the opportunity to attack the UK over the issue.
British officials and analysts are optimistic this won’t happen. “He obviously likes the royal family. He likes the UK,” said Ed Owen, a former special adviser during the New Labour years who is now a visiting fellow at the centre-left US thinktank Third Way. “I can’t imagine that he’s therefore going to come and start preaching about free speech. I don’t think it’s his style.”
The fact that Trump is not spending any significant amount of time in London during his trip means he will avoid large protests being staged in the capital and sidestep any controversy arising from a visit to parliament. The Commons will be in recess, which nullifies any question of the president addressing MPs.
Regardless, for Labour MPs all this is a sideshow while Starmer’s administration hurtles from crisis to crisis. “They are lucky that recess is coming up,” said one ordinarily loyal Labour MP who was incensed by the past fortnight’s developments. “If MPs were spending the next few weeks in parliament, there would be real trouble.”
The downfalls of Mandelson and the former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner have destabilised the government, and the cabinet reshuffle earned the prime minister several new enemies. Distraction is just what he needs – and the Trump circus is the biggest distraction of all.
