Only three regular-season Fridays remain in Major League Baseball in 2025, and we’ll look to cash some checks the rest of the way build up our accounts before the playoffs. We went 1 for 2 last week with the Blue Jays-Yankees over failing to cash by a half run. Sigh. So close.
Time for a 2-0 night with some hope for hitting the home run play. Let’s get to it, with the odds via DraftKings.
One of the big storylines Friday night is the return of Jacob deGrom to Citi Field, where he’s never faced his old team, the Mets, since joining the Rangers. The Rangers are hot right now and right on the cusp of a playoff spot while the Mets are scuffling and seem to be trying to squander their playoff spot. I’m avoiding any plays on the game result, but I do think deGrom pitches well while his workload is held down. He has a 2.21 ERA in his last four starts, but he’s only thrown 20 ⅓ innings in there. Keep in mind, deGrom hadn’t gone over 92 innings in a season since 2019 before this year and he’s at 155 ⅔.
I’m looking for exactly five innings from deGrom and the Mets scoring no more than one run off of him.
Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (-140)
I do believe Orioles starter Trevor Rogers has unlocked something and will be a frontline starter next season. It’s a 15-start sample at this point and he’s still sitting there with a 1.51 ERA. I also don’t think he’s Prime Pedro or Bob Gibson or Sandy Koufax. He’s surely due some regression at some point, right? He did allow a season-high-tying eight hits against the Dodgers last time out and even gave up a whopping two runs for the first time since July 20.
The Blue Jays hit really well at home and are one of the best teams against left-handed pitchers in baseball. I don’t believe they’ll explode on Rogers or anything, but it’s reasonable to think they can score three or four runs against him before the Orioles’ bullpen takes over and coughs up another run or two. I don’t see getting to four being a problem here and I’m confident enough to take on the juice.
These odds are awfully short for a home run play and, yes, I’m well aware that Schwarber is one of the easiest home run plays there is. After all, he’s one of the most prolific power hitters in baseball. Still, we like winning money and this is over +200, so I don’t see why it would be a bad play.
Schwarber and the Phillies play in a homer-friendly ballpark and he has 28 homers there this season in 72 games. The Royals send Michael Lorenzen to the mound, and he’s coughed up 21 homers this season. Schwarber is 8 for 22 (.364) with two home runs in his career against Lorenzen.
Futures Play: Fade the Astros
The Astros are 24-33 since July 3 and that makes them one of the worst non-Rockies teams in baseball for over two months. They host both the Mariners and Rangers next week and I won’t be even remotely surprised if both teams pass the Astros, meaning they’ll miss the playoffs. They are +250 to miss the playoffs. The Rangers are +185 to make the playoffs and +1000 to win the AL West. The Mariners are -125 to win the AL West. I’m good with whatever play here you desire. I’m out on the Astros.
