USATSI
I try not to overreact to too much from Week 1, especially when it comes to efficiency or touchdowns. I make small volume-based adjustments, small changes to projected run/pass splits, and rush/receiving share based on Week 1 usage. For rookies and players, we had uncertainty about coming into the year; the adjustments come quicker and more drastically than they do with established veterans in steady situations.
That being said, the wide receiver position is one of the most attractive on waivers this week, because of some big shifts in projected targets. One of those, Marquise Brown, came because of an injury to Xavier Worthy. Two of them, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston, came because of the Chargers’ very impressive pass rate boost. It really isn’t that common to find a starting wide receiver on the waiver wire in most leagues, so you may want to spend a little more than you think you should if you lost Xavier Worthy, or even if you just have a weak wide receiver room.
While Cedric Tillman came in behind those guys, he doesn’t get a write-up in the waiver wire section, so I will talk a little more about him here. Tillman caught five of eight targets for 52 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 and is now averaging 17.6 PPR FPPG in his last five full games. With Joe Flacco there, we should expect close to 40 passes per game from the Browns, which means Tillman, Jerru Jeudy, David Njoku, and Harold Fannin could all be heavily involved. The problem is the “with Joe Flacco” part. We do not know how long Flacco’s leash is, and this entire offense could tank when one of the rookies take over.
You can always find all of my projections over at Sportsline.
Here is the rest of the Week 2 WR Preview:
Week 2 WR Preview
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
- 42.1% — Marquise Brown had a 42.1% target share in Week 1. It may not be a great matchup against Philadelphia in Week 2, but it is hard to leave that type of volume on your bench.
- 100% — There were nine wide receivers who ran a route on 100% of their team’s drop-backs. Cooper Kupp, Jameson Williams, and Josh Reynolds were the only three to do that and have a target share below 24%.
- 59.1% — Jaxon Smith-Njigba was targeted on 59.1% of his routes in Week 1. Puka Nacua was the only other wide receiver above 42%. JSN looks like the steal of Round 3 and a surefire WR1.
- 6.7 — Pat Surtain and the Broncos held Calvin Ridley to 6.7 PPR Fantasy points in Week 1. Michael Pittman faces this matchup in Week 2.
- 34 — Justin Herbert attempted 34 passes in a game the Chargers led throughout, and only ran 62 plays. If that holds up, the Chargers can have multiple starting pass catchers.
- 46 — Josh Allen threw 46 passes in Week 1, and the Bills ran 78 plays. Last year, he averaged 30 attempts per game, which means you should probably cut each player’s targets by a third when talking about rest of season expectations.
- 7.5 — Chris Olave’s aDOT in Week 1 was 7.5. He has been over 10 every other season. With more slot usage and more shot targets, Olave could set a career high in receptions.
- 3 — DJ Moore had three rush attempts in Week 1, something we heard a lot about in camp. He could add an extra point or two to his per-game Fantasy production if that is a weekly thing.
- 12.1% — George Pickens had a 12% target share in Week 1, compared to 39% for CeeDee Lamb and 18% for Jake Ferguson.
- 56.6% — Stefon Diggs ran a route on just over half of the Patriots pass plays in Week 1. Expect that to increase over the coming weeks.
WR Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
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WR Preview
Heath’s Projections
My full set of Week 2 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don’t live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
