Each Sunday during the season, I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean and recommend whether to bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion.
My official Week 3 plays will be out later in the week, and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday.
Here are my thoughts on the Week 3 matchups:
Duke Blue Devils (+2.5) vs. Tulane Green Wave
I gave out Duke immediately on Saturday night at +4.5 at FanDuel. I thought that was a really bad number, and it proved to be right because shortly after I posted the play, the line moved to +2.5. I would still bet Duke at anything +2 or higher if you can get it.
The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Don’t overreact to the 45-19 final score against Illinois. That game was tight early in the third quarter before the Illini took advantage of sloppy play from the Blue Devils. Duke turned the ball over five times and the wheels fell off.
There were still some positive signs, though. Duke averaged 7.0 yards per play and held a strong Illinois ground game to 123 yards. Tulane is 2-0, although those wins came over a weak Northwestern squad and by two points against South Alabama where the Green Wave allowed 31 points and 421 total yards.
A lot will be made about Duke quarterback Darian Mensah returning to Tulane to face his former school. However, I think the Blue Devils are simply the better team, and I could see them closing as favorites. Take Duke now.
Bet: Duke +2.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-6.5) vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Notre Dame is sitting at just under a touchdown at home against Texas A&M on the early line. If you like the Aggies on Saturday, I would bet it now. I don’t know if this number will go above seven.
I actually like the Irish in this matchup. Notre Dame had a tough opening game at Miami with freshman quarterback CJ Carr making his first career start. Carr made some mistakes but also showed signs of why Marcus Freeman and the Notre Dame staff are high on the young quarterback.
I expect Carr to be more comfortable in his second start at home. I also think we will see a much better effort out of Notre Dame’s defense. Miami has one of the top offensive lines in college football and was able to push the Irish front around. Texas A&M’s offensive front won’t have the same success.
I do think this number will go down. I would consider backing Notre Dame if it gets down to -5 later in the week.
Wait: Notre Dame -5 or better
Florida Gators (+9.5) vs. LSU Tigers
I’m not a fan of Billy Napier, and I have a feeling there are a lot of people in Gainesville, Fla., who agree with me after the Gators were upset by South Florida on Saturday. However, while Napier’s coaching can be questioned, his recruiting can’t. Florida is loaded with talent, and this could be a good time to buy low on the Gators.
I’m an LSU guy. I bet the Tigers to make the College Football Playoff and think they are a serious title contender. Having said that, the lookahead line in this game was -6.5. We saw a three-point swing after Florida laid an egg on Saturday. That’s too much of a move based on one result.
My gut tells me this number will go down, but I’m going to be patient and see if a +10 pops. I expect a competitive game, and while I don’t hate taking the 9.5, the anti-Florida sentiment could see the line go up later in the week.
Wait: Florida +10 or better
Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5) vs. Tennessee Volunteers
I love Georgia laying under a touchdown in this spot. Tennessee beat a rebuilding Syracuse team that is so bad the Orange’s head coach had them running sprints after an overtime win over UConn on Saturday. Then, the Vols won their scrimmage over East Tennessee State 72-17.
Granted, Georgia hasn’t played anyone either with wins over Marshall and Austin Peay. One of the pluses, though, is the Bulldogs didn’t have to show much in their first two games. Syracuse may be down this season, but Tennessee still couldn’t hold much back in Week 1. That’s advantage Bulldogs heading into this Week 3 matchup.
I know some might be tempted to take the points at home with Tennessee. However, I make the Bulldogs -8 in this spot and like them laying less than a touchdown.
Bet: Georgia -6.5
