After a weekend without fights, UFC action returns on Saturday when middleweights Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho go head-to-head at Accor Arena in Paris (3 p.m. ET, prelims at noon on ESPN+).
Imavov, No. 4 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, enters the fight riding a four-fight winning streak. Most recently, he beat former titleholder Israel Adesanya by second-round TKO in February.
Borralho, No. 6 by ESPN, is undefeated in his nine UFC fights. This will be his first Octagon appearance of 2025. Boralho was the first member of the Fight Nerds gym to earn a UFC contract in 2021.
In the co-main event, fellow Fighting Nerd Mauricio Ruffy takes on Benoît Saint Denis.
ESPN MMA analysts and commentators provide their predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the card.
Main event picks
ExpertPickMethodAnthony Smith
ESPN MMA analyst
BorralhoDecisionDin Thomas
MMA coach
BorralhoDecision
Borralho is the better grappler, and his striking has actually developed into a real threat. An opponent having that versatility is a real problem for Imavov. Imavov does well when he’s facing a pure grappler or a pure striker. The fighters who can do both can get him focused on one area and then attack him in the other discipline. I expected Borralho to take Jared Cannonier down to the mat in his last fight, but instead he handled Cannonier well on the feet. And that’s because he’s preparing for middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev, who the winner of this fight could fight next. Borralho’s improved striking will be the difference. — Anthony Smith
Imavov starts too slow. If he starts slow against Borralho, he’ll let rounds slip away. Borralho will use his feints, good footwork and unpredictability to take rounds and possibly steal any rounds that might be closely scored by the judges. I think Borralho will win by a convincing decision. — Din Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds are accurate as of Sept. 5. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Over 4.5 rounds (-240). This could be a No. 1 contender fight at middleweight. After opening with nearly identical lines for both fighters, the odds have moved in favor of Borralho.
This will be a close fight, but I believe the difference will be Borralho’s ground game. Borralho can match Imavov’s striking, and when he starts landing punches, it will open up the wrestling and ground game for Borralho to take over. However, considering neither fighter has been finished in the Octagon, the over 4.5 rounds should hit with relative ease. Even if the fight hits the mat, Imavov has good enough submission defense to keep from being finished, but Borralho will have no issue maintaining top position and doing enough damage to bank rounds.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
1:15
Mauricio Ruffy grabs KO win in first round
Mauricio Ruffy finishes Jamie Mullarkey for the first-round knockout win.
Lightweight: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy
Ruffy to win (-195). Saint Denis is taking on surging prospect Ruffy in what should be a fun matchup. If Saint Denis can’t get the fight to the floor, Ruffy will either pick him apart for three rounds or land a shot to finish the fight.
Money has been coming in on Saint Denis, which has moved Ruffy’s line from near -200 to much more playable odds. Coming from the Fighting Nerds team, Ruffy will be prepared for any wrestling or takedown attempts from Saint Denis.
Light heavyweight: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig
Bukauskas to win by KO/TKO (-125). Craig has endured three consecutive losses and a no contest due to an illegal upkick in his past four fights, so he could use a win against Bukauskas. But unless he can get Bukauskas into his guard on the mat, Craig will likely get knocked out. Craig is a skilled submission specialist, but he has not evolved as a striker. The game plan for beating him has been proven: Just keep the fight standing. Expect Bukauskas to follow the blueprint and get the KO win.
