The New York Yankees will attempt to recover from a sweep at the hands of the Miami Marlins when they send Max Fried (12-4, 2.62 ERA) to the bump Monday evening against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Fried is trying to become the first 13-game winner in MLB this season, and he’ll face a Rangers team which dropped three of its four games agains the Seattle Mariners to fall two games back in the AL Wild Card standings.
Fried has been roughed up a bit in his last three starts, allowing 14 runs in 15 innings while striking out 14. He only managed five combined strikeouts against the Cubs and Blue Jays before racking up nine against the Rays in his most recent outing. Fried gave up 21 runs in July, which was more than his combined runs allowed for May and June. Luckily, he’s in a potentially favorable spot Monday against Texas. The Rangers have scored more than five runs just twice in their last seven games.
Patrick Corbin (6-7, 3.78 ERA) steps to the mound for Texas in this series opener. He’s been solid of late, allowing just six runs over his last four starts. However, he has not made it past the sixth inning in any of those appearances.
The top sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for both Fried (Over -147, Under +113) and Corbin (Over +131, Under -168) at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Corbin’s Under 5.5 strikeout prop as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Fried’s Over 5.5 as a 3-star play.
However, the model has found better value on Monday’s 13-game schedule, as there is one pitcher strikeout player prop that it has rated at 5 stars, another at 4.5 stars and one at four stars that returns plus money. Here they are:
Tanner Gordon Over 2.5 strikeouts (-120) vs. Blue Jays (8:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 3.8 strikeouts
Gordon will be making his sixth start of the season and the 14th of his major-league career. The 27-year-old right-hander has recorded 15 strikeouts across 26 innings this year for an average of three per game. He has gone Over his projected total in three of his five outings. Meanwhile, Toronto has the lowest strikeout total in the majors this campaign (748) but has whiffed at least six times in four of its last five contests.
Jason Alexander Over 3.5 strikeouts (-101) vs. Marlins (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
Alexander lasted only 4 2/3 innings against the Washington Nationals in his last start but matched his career high with six strikeouts. It marked the second time in three turns this season the 32-year-old righty fanned at least four batters. The Marlins have gone down on strikes 870 times this year, tying them for fifth-fewest in the major leagues, but they have struck out seven or more times in each of their last four contests.
Brandon Pfaadt Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125) vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
Pfaadt has registered five or more strikeouts in five of his last seven starts after doing so only once over his previous seven outings. The 26-year-old right-hander has a better strikeout rate at home than on the road, recording 55 across 58 2/3 innings at Chase Field as opposed to 43 across 57 2/3 frames in away games. Pfaadt has gone Over his projected total in three of his last five home starts and has recorded 41 strikeouts over 41 2/3 innings in seven career turns against the Padres. He has retired Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts a total of 19 times, with 10 being strikeouts.
