\n<\/p>\n
I<\/span>t is a scenario beloved of Hollywood: a huge asteroid, several miles wide, is on a collision course with Earth. Scientists check and recheck their calculations but there is no mistake \u2013 civilisation is facing a cataclysmic end unless the space rock can be deflected.<\/p>\n It may sound like science fiction, but it is a threat that is being taken seriously by scientists.<\/p>\n Earlier this year, researchers estimated that asteroid YR4 2024 had a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, before revising that likelihood down to 0.0017%. This week, new data suggested it was more likely to hit the moon, with a probability of 4.3%.<\/p>\n If that happens, the 53- to 67-metre (174ft-220ft) asteroid previously called a \u201ccity killer\u201d will launch hundreds of tonnes of debris towards our planet, posing a risk to satellites, spacecraft and astronauts.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/span>Possible impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 on the moon in December 2032.<\/span><\/p>\n Before that, in April 2029, 99942 Apophis \u2013 an asteroid larger than the Eiffel Tower \u2013 will be visible to the naked eye when it passes within 32,000km of Earth. This attention-grabbing close encounter has prompted the UN to designate 2029 as the international year of planetary defence.<\/p>\n When it comes to apocalyptic asteroid strikes, there is precedent, of course. Most scientists believe such an event hastened the demise of non-avian dinosaurs 66m years ago.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is something that happens,\u201d said Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh. \u201cNot very often, but it is something that happens. And it\u2019s something that we could potentially do something about.\u201d<\/p>\n As Chris Lintott, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Oxford, told the UK parliament\u2019s science, innovation and technology committee this week, the risk posed by an asteroid originating beyond our solar system is minimal. Instead, he said, the greater threat comes from those in our cosmic back yard.<\/p>\n <\/span>An asteroid is thought to have caused the harsh conditions that led most dinosaurs to go extinct.<\/span> Illustration: Dr Mark A Garlick\/Reuters<\/p>\n \u201cMost asteroids in the solar system exist in the asteroid belt, which is between Mars and Jupiter, but they become disrupted, usually by encounters with either of those planets, and they can move into orbits that cross the Earth,\u201d said Lintott, who presents the long-running BBC astronomy series The Sky at Night. \u201cThen it\u2019s just a case of whether we\u2019re in the wrong place at the wrong time.\u201d<\/p>\n The chances of an enormous asteroid \u2013 the type that did for the dinosaurs \u2013 hitting Earth is admittedly low. \u201cWe think there\u2019s one of these every 10m to 100m years, probably,\u201d Lintott told the Guardian. \u201cSo I think you\u2019d be right to ignore that when you decide whether to get up on a Thursday morning or not.\u201d<\/p>\n Snodgrass said there were \u201cprecisely four\u201d asteroids big enough and close enough to Earth to be considered \u201cdino-killers\u201d, and added: \u201cWe know where they are, and they\u2019re not coming anywhere near us.\u201d<\/p>\n But damage can also be done by smaller asteroids. According to Nasa, space rocks measuring about one to 20 metres across collided with Earth\u2019s atmosphere resulting in fireballs 556 times over 20 years.<\/p>\n <\/span>A dashboard camera catches a meteor exploding over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013.<\/span> Photograph: AP<\/p>\n Many collisions have occurred over the oceans, but not all. \u201cChelyabinsk is the best example,\u201d Lintott said. In 2013, a house-sized space rock \u2013 thought to have been about 20 metres across \u2013 exploded in the air above the Russian city with a force of nearly 30 Hiroshima bombs, producing an airburst that caused significant damage and hundreds of injuries, mostly from broken glass.<\/p>\n Less dramatically, in February 2021 a space rock thought to have been just tens of centimetres across broke up in Earth\u2019s atmosphere, with fragments landing in the Cotswold town of Winchcombe in the UK. Thankfully, the damage was confined to a splat mark on a driveway.<\/p>\n The types of asteroids we should perhaps be most concerned about are those about 140 metres across. According to Nasa, asteroids around that size are thought to hit Earth about once every 20,000 years and have the potential to cause huge destruction and mass casualties. The space agency has a congressional mandate to detect and track near-Earth objects of this size and larger, and a suite of new technological advances are helping them do just that.<\/p>\n On Monday, the first images from the Vera C Rubin observatory in Chile were released to the public. This telescope is expected to more than triple the number of known near-earth objects, from about 37,000 to 127,000, over a 10-year period. In just 10 hours of observations, it found seven previously unspotted asteroids that will pass close to the Earth \u2013 though none are expected to hit.<\/p>\n <\/span>The Trifid and Lagoon nebulas as seen by the Vera C Rubin observatory in Chile.<\/span> Photograph: RubinObs\/Reuters<\/p>\n Also in the offing, though not planned for launch before 2027, is Nasa\u2019s near-Earth object (Neo) surveyor. Armed with an array of infrared detectors, this is \u201cthe first space telescope specifically designed to detect asteroids and comets that may be potential hazards to Earth\u201d, the agency says.<\/p>\n Lintott said: \u201cBetween those two, we should find everything down to about 140 metres.\u201d He said such observations should give scientists up to 10 years\u2019 warning of a potential collision.<\/p>\n The European Space Agency (Esa) is planning a near-Earth object mission in the infrared (Neomir) satellite. Slated for launch in the early 2030s, this will help detect asteroids heading towards Earth that are at least 20 metres in diameter and obscured by the sun.<\/p>\n Assessing the emerging capabilities, Edward Baker, the planetary defence lead at the UK\u2019s National Space Operations Centre (NSpOC) at RAF High Wycombe, said: \u201cI think we\u2019re in a good place. I can\u2019t see a situation like [the film] Don\u2019t Look Up materialising at all \u2013 though I wouldn\u2019t mind being portrayed by Leonardo DiCaprio.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/span>Leonardo DiCaprio as an astronomy professor in the 2021 disaster satire Don\u2019t Look Up.<\/span> Photograph: Niko Tavernise\/AP<\/p>\n As our ability to spot near-Earth asteroids increases, Lintott said, we should get used to hearing about asteroids like YR4 2024, which initially seem more likely to hit Earth before the risk rapidly falls towards zero. He described the shifting probabilities as similar to when a footballer takes a free kick.<\/p>\n \u201cThe moment they kick it, [it looks like] it could go anywhere,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd then as it moves, you get more information. So you\u2019re like: \u2018Oh, it might go in the goal,\u2019 and then it inevitably becomes really clear that it\u2019s going to miss.\u201d<\/p>\n Of course, scientists aren\u2019t just monitoring the risks to Earth. They are also making plans to protect it. In 2022, Nasa crashed a spacecraft into a small, harmless asteroid called Dimorphos that orbits a larger rock called Didymos to test whether it would be possible to shift its path. The Dart mission was a success, reducing Dimorphos\u2019s 12-hour orbit around Didymos by 32 minutes.<\/p>\n In 2024, Esa launched a follow-up to Nasa\u2019s Dart mission, called Hera. This will reach Dimorphos in 2026 and carry out a close-up \u201ccrash site investigation\u201d. It will survey the Dart impact crater, probe how effectively momentum was transferred in the collision and record a host of other measurements.<\/p>\n Esa hopes this will provide crucial insights that can be used to make deliberate Dart-style impacts a reliable technique for safeguarding Earth.<\/p>\n <\/span>Esa\u2019s Hera spacecraft will survey the Dimorphos and Didymos asteroids in 2026.<\/span> Illustration: ESA\/ScienceOffice.org<\/p>\n \u201cDart was much more effective than anyone expected it to be,\u201d Lintott said. \u201cAnd presumably that\u2019s something to do with the structure of the asteroid. I think we need to know whether Dart just got lucky with its target, or whether all near-Earth asteroids are like this.\u201d<\/p>\n For the most part, scientists say the threat of an asteroid strike does not keep them up at night. \u201cWe\u2019re safer than we\u2019ve ever been and we\u2019re about to get a lot safer, because the more of these things we find, the more we can spot them on the way in,\u201d Lintott said.<\/p>\n As Esa has quipped on its merchandise: \u201cDinosaurs didn\u2019t have a space agency.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It is a scenario beloved of Hollywood: a huge asteroid, several miles wide, is on a collision course with Earth. Scientists check and recheck their calculations but there is no mistake \u2013 civilisation is facing a cataclysmic end unless the space rock can be deflected. It may sound like science fiction, but it is a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9745,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[1871,1875,2273,589,1119,1349],"class_list":{"0":"post-9744","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-science","8":"tag-asteroid","9":"tag-asteroids","10":"tag-devastating","11":"tag-earth","12":"tag-save","13":"tag-strike"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9744","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9744"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9744\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9744"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9744"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9744"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Knowing the risk<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Gathering data<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Taking action<\/strong><\/h2>\n