\n<\/p>\n
In August 2019, something bizarre happened in the Far North: A massive thunderstorm produced more than a thousand flashes of lightning, including a record-breaking bolt that hit just 32 miles from the North Pole, the closest strike ever recorded. \u201cIt was a crazy summer,\u201d says Rick Thoman, a climatologist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s common knowledge that thunderstorms and lightning are more likely when it\u2019s hot than when it\u2019s cold; they are more prevalent in the tropics than in the Arctic. So, scientists wondered: Was the Arctic becoming more electric in our warming world, and if so, what impacts would that have?<\/p>\n
In general, a warmer world is expected to be a stormier world. But the precise impacts that climate change will have on thunderstorms and lightning remain a matter of scientific debate.\u00a0Getting a handle on this is important for a host of reasons. Globally, tens of thousands of people die each year from lightning strikes. Lightning sparks chemical reactions in the atmosphere that can either exacerbate or counteract air pollution and climate change, with surprisingly powerful impacts on planet-warming methane. And, of course, lightning strikes are a significant cause of\u00a0wildfires, which can devastate landscapes and release planet-warming carbon into the air.<\/p>\n
Historically, \u201cthe Arctic basically didn\u2019t have lightning at all,\u201d says an atmospheric physicist. \u201cNow it\u2019s got a lot more. It\u2019s easy to see that.\u201d<\/p>\n
So far, the detection networks that count lightning strikes around the world have seen only a vague hint of an upwards trend in total global lightning. But in the north, the story is different. In the Arctic, there has been a far more dramatic upsurge, with one\u00a0report finding that north of the 80th parallel (passing through the top of Greenland), recorded lightning events went from around 100 per year in the early 2010s to more than 7,000 in 2021. Historically, \u201cthe Arctic basically didn\u2019t have lightning at all,\u201d says Robert Holzworth, a retired atmospheric physicist with the University of Washington in Seattle. \u201cNow it\u2019s got a lot more. It\u2019s easy to see that.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
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Researchers are now scrambling to get a better sense of how much lightning will increase in the north, and what that will mean for people, local ecosystems, and the global climate. Will more lightning spark more fires, or will\u00a0more rain \u2014 also brought by climate change \u2014 dampen them? And is what\u2019s happening in the north an aberration, or does it signal change across the rest of the planet?<\/p>\n
In 2014, UC Berkeley atmospheric scientist David Romps famously calculated that lightning strikes increase by about 12 percent per degree Celsius of global warming, which could add up to a 50 percent increase by 2100. This estimate was based on just two main factors, which Romps showed were tightly linked to lightning across the continental United States: precipitation and \u201cconvective available potential energy,\u201d a measure of air instability. More rainclouds (with water and ice particles bumping up against each other to create electric charge) and more convection beget more lightning. But as scientists have considered other factors, they have produced a wider variety of lightning forecasts.<\/p>\n
One of these factors is the amount of \u201cgraupel\u201d in clouds: These tiny soft bits of hail increase clouds\u2019 electrical charge. Another factor is air pollution. The dirtier the air, the more lightning. When Covid struck, for example, the reduction in air, road, and shipping traffic led to cleaner air, which slashed global lightning rates by about 15 percent. In 2022, changes to shipping pollution regulations similarly caused a huge reduction in lightning strikes over shipping lanes.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Because of all these complexities, along with the fact that climate models typically struggle with small-scale phenomena like thunderstorms, lightning forecasts frequently disagree. Some even predict that global lightning might decrease, not increase. There is \u201ca large knowledge gap in the prediction of future global lightning activity,\u201d says Yuzhong Zhang, an atmospheric chemist at Westlake University in Hangzhou, China.<\/p>\n
The World Wide Lightning Location Network records between 600,000 and 800,000 lightning strikes every day around the globe, or more than 200 million per year. This network, which has been running since 2004, picks up very-low-frequency radio waves created by lightning, which bounce off the ionosphere and travel around the globe. By detecting this signal at a handful of the dozens of global stations, and timing them to within nanoseconds, researchers can triangulate where and when lightning struck. The WWLLN (pronounced \u201cwoollen\u201d) catches only about 30 percent of global lightning, missing a lot of little strikes but detecting 80 percent of high-energy strikes. Other local or commercial networks catch more strikes, but WWLLN has the longest and most consistent global dataset available to researchers.<\/p>\n
The North\u2019s new fire regime comes with hotter fires, which can incinerate rather than activate the seed cones of fire-adapted trees.<\/p>\n
Jed Kaplan, an earth system scientist at the University of Calgary who combs through the WWLLN data each year, says that as of 2022 there were no clear trends in the global lightning data \u2014 though more recent data, he says, suggest a hint of an overall increase. In the Arctic, however, there are more solid signs. Holzworth\u2019s 2021 study of WWLLN data found that from 2010 to 2020, warmer summers saw more lightning hitting above the 65th parallel (around the middle of Alaska). The hottest year in this stretch, 2019 (which was globally 0.93 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1951-1980 average), saw three times more lightning in the Arctic as a fraction of the global total than the coolest year, 2011 (which was 0.65 degrees Celsius warmer). In other words, a 0.3-degree Celsius bump in global temperature came with a tripling of Arctic lightning.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s just for one 10-year stretch, cautions Holzworth, and it isn\u2019t clear that this trend will continue. In fact, he says, his as-yet-unpublished analysis suggests that lightning has dipped a bit in the Arctic in the last few years. \u00a0<\/p>\n
Yet the Finnish weather company Vaisala, which runs its own lightning detection network, has seen an even more dramatic spike in the Far North. Its 2022 report says that while lightning strike numbers have remained steady up to the 65th parallel, researchers saw in 2021 nearly twice as many lightning events (including both lightning within clouds and lightning that strikes the ground) north of the 80th parallel than in the previous nine years combined.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The 2015 Bogus Creek Fire burned through the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.<\/span> More lightning doesn\u2019t always lead to more fires, notes Kaplan. Fires require not just an ignition but also a lot of dry fuel to burn. The vast majority of lightning strikes in the tropics, but it comes with heavy rains that prevent fire. In some places, including in the United States, the majority of wildfires are started by human carelessness or equipment malfunctions, not by lightning. But in high latitudes, lightning is the main cause of large fires, so an increase in lightning activity in the north is cause for concern.<\/p>\n Rain comes to the Arctic, with a cascade of troubling changes. Read more.<\/p>\n The Alaska Fire Science Consortium is tracking what\u2019s going on in Alaska. The peak fire activity there occurs in June, as long, sunny days dry out \u201cduff fuels\u201d \u2014 decomposing litter, lichen, and moss \u2014 and lightning storms hit more frequently. Those conditions stretch into July. By the end of July, Alaska tends to get more rain, dampening fires.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The consortium\u2019s 2025 report notes that Alaska is getting warmer \u2014 the summer average is now more than 54 degrees F, compared to about 52 degrees F in 1970. It\u2019s getting wetter too, but not, for now, fast enough to offset the effects of warming on fire. And lightning is increasing: There has been a doubling in lightning strikes in Alaska\u2019s western interior over the past 10 years. \u201cWe know that from the networks, but also from local people \u2014 not just the elders but middle-aged people \u2014 who have noticed things changing,\u201d says Thoman. Much of Alaska has historically been too dry for lightning; now it is tipping over the edge to having just enough moisture in the air to form thunderstorms, Thoman says.\u00a0<\/p>\n One study forecast that lightning strikes could more than double by 2100 in tundra and boreal forests underlain by permafrost.<\/p>\n All these factors have together led to more frequent large-fire years in Alaska. \u201cThe big fire seasons are roughly doubling in frequency,\u201d says Thoman.\u00a0 Lightning plays an important role in that. In 2015, for example, Alaska saw more than 50,000 strikes over a three-day period (more than a third of the state\u2019s annual average of 120,000 per summer), and it experienced its second largest fire season yet, with more than 5 million acres burned.<\/p>\n Fire is a natural part of the northern ecosystem. But the new fire regime comes with hotter fires, says Thoman, which can incinerate rather than activate the seed cones of fire-adapted trees.\u00a0Burning duff creates a huge amount of smoke, which is problematic for people who live downwind. And the burning of trees, which sometimes never grow back, can strip the landscape of shade and speed up permafrost melt, which releases methane \u2014 a powerful greenhouse gas.\u00a0<\/p>\n One recent\u00a0study forecast that lightning strikes could more than double by 2100 in tundra and boreal forest areas that are underlain by permafrost. This, the authors write, could increase the area consumed by wildfire by more than five times and release large quantities of methane. Permafrost thaw isn\u2019t well represented in climate models, so the amount of greenhouse gas that might be released this way is unknown. \u201cThere\u2019s not enough attention on this in my opinion,\u201d says Thoman.<\/p>\n Lightning strikes the Kokolik National Petroleum Reserve in northern Alaska.<\/span> There\u2019s one reason, though, to think that more lightning might help mitigate possible boosts in methane: by changing the chemistry of the atmosphere.<\/p>\n In 2021, researchers flying planes over Colorado and Oklahoma to study the air during lightning storms were startled to find that strikes produced massive amounts of oxidants \u2014 more than 1,000 times the amount they were expecting to find. These oxidants \u2014 hydroxyl and the hydroperoxyl radical \u2014 are known to scrub away methane, acting like a kind of atmospheric cleanser.<\/p>\n The effect can be dramatic, as Zhang and his colleagues learned by studying the reverse dynamic: a sharp increase in methane that occurred during Covid. The team calculated that the global decline in lightning \u2014 due to reduced traffic and air pollution during the pandemic \u2014 caused a dramatic 2 percent global reduction in hydroxyl in 2020, as compared to 2019. At the same time, atmospheric methane increased by about 15 parts per billion in 2020 \u2014 one of the biggest annual spikes ever seen and more than 50 percent greater than the rise in 2019. A host of different theories have been put forward to explain this methane boost, including industrial leaks and wetland emissions, but the lightning theory is powerful: Zhang estimates it could account for about half of the spike.\u00a0<\/p>\n How tensions with Russia are jeopardizing key Arctic research. Read more.<\/p>\n For now, no one knows the\u00a0likely\u00a0magnitude of either effect. If lightning strikes continue to increase in the Arctic, or elsewhere, how much will that boost methane or mop it up?\u00a0Thunderstorms, says Holzworth, play a hugely important role in moving ions and molecules around in the upper atmosphere, and the impacts of that activity on climate change are complex and unknown. \u201cThese are pieces of the puzzle that need to be solved.\u201d<\/p>\n Holzworth thinks that in places where there\u2019s little lightning now, \u201cthere will be more \u2013 maybe even in the Antarctic,\u201d he says. \u201cBut it\u2019s not so clear. The weather dynamics are changing.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In August 2019, something bizarre happened in the Far North: A massive thunderstorm produced more than a thousand flashes of lightning, including a record-breaking bolt that hit just 32 miles from the North Pole, the closest strike ever recorded. \u201cIt was a crazy summer,\u201d says Rick Thoman, a climatologist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8703,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"tags":[240,238,242,85],"class_list":{"0":"post-8701","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-arctic","9":"tag-lightning","10":"tag-north","11":"tag-strikes"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8701\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8703"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n Matt Snyder \/ Alaska Division of Forestry<\/span><\/p>\n
\n David Shaw \/ Alaska Stock<\/span><\/p>\n