Source: LSEG Data & Analytics.<\/span> <\/p>\nFor the first time in almost two weeks, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, closed below $100. The last time the oil market had fallen so dramatically in response to Mr. Trump was on March 9, when he told CBS News that the Iran war was \u201cvery complete.\u201d<\/p>\n
That same day, Mr. Trump told reporters that diplomatic talks were underway with Tehran, claiming a \u201creal possibility of making a deal.\u201d The speaker of Iran\u2019s parliament denied that, writing on X that \u201cfakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.\u201d<\/p>\n
Days after posting that talks were going well, Mr. Trump once again resorted to threats. He posted on Truth Social on March 30 that he would take out Iran\u2019s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not immediately opened.<\/p>\n
The stock market hit its lowest point of the year. The next day, Mr. Trump promised that the U.S. would be leaving \u201cvery soon,\u201d giving the market a boost.<\/p>\n
The S&P 500 had its worst day of the year on March 30<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Note: Data is through May 18.<\/span> Source: LSEG Data & Analytics.<\/span> <\/p>\nMr. Trump addressed the nation on April 1. While he did not predict an imminent resolution to the conflict, he said that his military objectives would be completed \u201cvery shortly\u201d and that diplomacy was underway.<\/p>\n
The stock market continued to tick up in the following days.<\/p>\n
As negotiations have dragged on, the president has alternated between claims of diplomatic progress and threats of military escalation, neither of which have materialized.<\/p>\n
Mr. Trump began April with some of his most dramatic threats of the war, including one to destroy Iran\u2019s \u201ccivilization\u201d on the night of April 7.<\/p>\n
But later that evening, Mr. Trump announced one of the biggest developments of the war so far: a two-week cease-fire mediated by Pakistan.<\/p>\n
Markets welcomed the cease-fire deal, which was supposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but they did not move as much as they had earlier in April.<\/p>\n
Oil prices initially fell, but have proven volatile<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Notes: Note: Data shows future contract prices for Brent crude oil. Data is through May 18.<\/span> Source: LSEG Data & Analytics.<\/span> <\/p>\nTehran quickly said that continued fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Iran\u2019s ally, Hezbollah, violated the deal, and Iran kept the strait closed. Mr. Trump argued Iran wasn\u2019t upholding its end of the bargain.<\/p>\n
Before the start of the war, about a fifth of the world\u2019s oil and gas traveled through the strait. But once the war began, shipping traffic plummeted.<\/p>\n
Shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed to a trickle<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Note: The data is an index based on the daily volume of crude oil shipped out of the Strait in metric tons. The index is calculated by dividing the volume by the average volume from January to March 2025 and multiplying by 100. Data is through May 17. Only includes ships with trackers turned on.<\/span> Source: AXSMarine and the World Trade Organization<\/span> <\/p>\nIran has repeatedly promised to open the strait as part of the cease-fire agreement, but this hasn\u2019t happened.<\/p>\n
After the first round of negotiations with Iran failed on April 11, Mr. Trump announced a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports to cut off Tehran\u2019s lucrative oil exports.<\/p>\n
Furious, Iran said the strait would remain closed so long as the blockade continued.<\/p>\n
In late April, Mr. Trump agreed to indefinitely extend a cease-fire and said U.S. officials would return to Pakistan for more talks. Days later, he canceled those talks.<\/p>\n
The next week, on April 28, gasoline prices rose to their highest level in four years. <\/strong>There are few signs that the markets are listening to what he says.<\/p>\n\n- I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. Truth Social post on May 3 \u203a<\/li>\n
- We\u2019ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it\u2019s very possible that we\u2019ll make a deal. Remarks on May 6 \u203a<\/li>\n
- I\u2019m getting a letter supposedly tonight, so we\u2019ll see how that goes. Press gaggle on May 8 \u203a<\/li>\n
- We were getting ready to do a very major attack tomorrow, and I put it off … because we\u2019ve had very big discussions with Iran … Press gaggle on May 18 \u203a<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
In May, Mr. Trump has continued to make claims about diplomatic progress with Iran. But once again, subsequent events have told a different story.<\/p>\n
A list of negotiating positions that Iran sent to Mr. Trump on May 10 consisted of familiar hard-line demands and no meaningful new concessions. And just days after claiming the U.S. had conducted \u201cvery good talks\u201d with Iran, he dismissed Tehran\u2019s latest offer as \u201ca piece of garbage.\u201d<\/p>\n
But Mr. Trump continues to show no signs of worry, telling reporters on Monday that despite his preparations to resume bombing, \u201cthere seems to be a very good chance\u201d a deal can still be reached soon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
For weeks, President Trump has searched for a way to end the war in Iran. He has tried threats of bombing, blockading and negotiating \u2014 sometimes all in the same day. On a few occasions, he has even suggested that the war is already over. The New York Times analyzed the president\u2019s statements suggesting that<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[84,20763,81,261],"class_list":{"0":"post-49593","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-crime-justice","8":"tag-iran","9":"tag-talked","10":"tag-trump","11":"tag-war"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=49593"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49593\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/49594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=49593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=49593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=49593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}