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The oil price has hit its highest level since the US and Iran agreed a ceasefire more than two weeks ago.<\/strong><\/p>\n Brent crude traded as high as $107.48 a barrel this morning, its highest level since 7 April, the day when the US and Iran agreed to a conditional ceasefire.<\/p>\n <\/span>The Brent crude oil price over the last three months<\/span> Photograph: LSEG<\/p>\n That deal included a temporary reopening of the strait of Hormuz, after Donald Trump had threatened Iran with widespread destruction.<\/p>\n But with the strait still largely blockaged, and oil production in the region having more than halved since the war began (see earlier post), anxiety over the conflict is rising again today.<\/p>\n Brent crude had been trading around $72 a barrel before the war began, and hit $119.50 in early March (corrected).<\/p>\n Oil is up today despite Trump announcing last night that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would be extended by three weeks.<\/p>\n But, <\/strong>when asked how long he was willing to wait for a long-term peace deal with Iran, Trump replied: \u201cDon\u2019t rush me\u201d.<\/p>\n The risks to the oil price \u201cremain tilted to the upside\u201d, Fawad Razaqzada,<\/strong> market analyst at Forex.com, <\/strong>explains, as the US-Iran stalemate drags on.<\/p>\n Razaqzada <\/strong>adds:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cOil has been on a firm upward trajectory this week, clearly driven by the collapse of planned talks between the US and Iran.<\/p>\n Tehran has refused to engage while the naval blockade remains in place, fuelling concerns over tightening supply and pushing prices well above $100 per barrel again.<\/p>\n There was a brief pause when Trump opted to extend the ceasefire, but the effect proved short-lived. With no clear timeline for negotiations and both sides entrenched, markets remain in limbo \u2014 and prices continue to grind higher.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Updated at\u00a011.02 EDT<\/p>\n <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n <\/span>Show key events only<\/p>\n Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n And finally\u2026the London stock market has closed in the red tonight, just hours after Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden\u2019s warning of a possible correction.<\/strong><\/p>\n The FTSE 100 share index has closed down 78 points, or 0.75%, at 10,379 points tonight.<\/p>\n Packaging firm Mondi<\/strong> (-11%) was the top faller, after warning that the Iran war was pushing up its costs.<\/p>\n Here are today\u2019s main stories:<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Updated at\u00a011.42 EDT<\/p>\n Here\u2019s our news story about the US Department of Justice dropping its criminal investigation against Federal Reserve chair Jerome<\/strong> Powell<\/strong>, clearing the path for Donald<\/strong> Trump\u2019s<\/strong> new nominee for chair to be confirmed.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n US consumer confidence has dropped this month, as fears grow that the Iran war is pushing up costs.<\/strong><\/p>\n The University of Michigan\u2019s consumer sentiment index has dropped this month, down 3.5 points to 49.8 points.<\/p>\n The measures of current economic conditions and of consumer expectations both declined during April.<\/p>\n Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu <\/strong>said levels of consumer morale were now comparable to the trough seen in June 2022, adding:<\/p>\n double quotation markDecreases in sentiment were seen across political party, income, age, and education.<\/p>\n Expected business conditions declined for both short and long time horizons, nearly matching year-ago readings when the reciprocal tariff regime was implemented. After the two-week cease-fire was announced and gas prices softened a touch, sentiment recovered a modest portion of its early-month losses.<\/p>\n The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices. In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Fiona Harvey<\/span><\/p>\n The oil crisis triggered by the Iran war has changed the fossil fuel industry for ever, turning countries away from fossil fuels to secure energy supplies, the world\u2019s leading energy economist has said.<\/strong><\/p>\n Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), also said that, despite pressure, the UK should forgo much of its potential North Sea expansion.<\/p>\n Speaking exclusively to the Guardian, Birol said a key effect of the US-Israel war on Iran was that countries would lose trust in fossil fuels and demand for them would reduce.<\/p>\n \u201cTheir perception of risk and reliability will change. Governments will review their energy strategies. There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power and a further shift towards a more electrified future,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd this will cut into the main markets for oil.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n The US justice department is closing the criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over cost overruns in renovations at the Fed.<\/p>\n The move, announced by US Attorney for DC Jeanine Pirro, appears to clear the way for Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump\u2019s pick to succeed Powell, to get confirmed for the role.<\/p>\n The investigation, announced in January, was examining whether Powell lied to Congress about the scope of a project to renovate the Fed\u2019s buildings.<\/p>\n Today, Pirro says there will be an internal investigation led by the central bank\u2019s inspector general into the project.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Updated at\u00a011.01 EDT<\/p>\n The US tech-focused Nasdaq index has hit a new record high in early trading, lifted by those chip stocks\u2026.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Wall Street has opened a little higher, lifted by a strong rally in chip stocks.<\/strong><\/p>\n Intel<\/strong> has surged by 27% at the start of trading, after smashing revenues expectations last night as the AI boom drives demand for its products.<\/p>\n Intel<\/strong> predicted it would achieve revenues of between $13.8bn and $14.8bn in the current quarter, ahead of analyst expectations of around $13bn.<\/p>\n Other semiconductor stocks are rallying too \u2013 with Qualcomm<\/strong> jumping 12% and AMD<\/strong> up by 10.5%.<\/p>\n This has helped to lift the S&P 500<\/strong> share index by 12 points, or 0.17%, to 7,120 at the start of trading in New York.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n There\u2019s an old saying that the price of motor fuel goes up like a rocket, and down like a feather.<\/strong><\/p>\n And it appears to be coming true again.<\/p>\n New data from the RAC<\/strong> shows that the average price of petrol has dipped by just 0.08p today to 157.22p a litre; that\u2019s stil 18.4% higher than when the Iran war began.<\/p>\n Diesel is down 0.2p at 189.59p a litre, 33% higher than at the end of February.<\/p>\n RAC<\/strong> head of policy Simon Williams says retail prices are lagging falls in wholesale fuel prices:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cPump prices aren\u2019t falling at the rate that our analysis of wholesale data indicates they should, with petrol only having dropped a penny a litre since 15 April and diesel by 2p. Interestingly, we note that prices in Northern Ireland have reduced more quickly as unleaded has already come down by 2p and diesel by more than 4p in the last week.<\/p>\n \u201cThe fact the price of oil went back above $100 on Wednesday having been below that mark for 10 days is no doubt cause for concern for retailers. Despite this the cost of both fuels on the wholesale market is still lower than it has been, particularly so for diesel – so drivers really ought to see some cheaper prices at the forecourts in the coming days.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Oil has now slipped back, following reports that Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi<\/strong> is expected to travel to Pakistan for talks with the US this weekend.<\/p>\n Araghchi<\/strong> is expected to arrive in Islamabad tonight with a small delegation, according to government sources.<\/p>\n Following important discussions with the Pakistani mediation team, a second round of Islamabad peace talks between the United States and Iran is expected, government sources say.<\/p>\n A U.S. logistics and security team understood to already be present in Islamabad to facilitate the negotiation process.<\/p>\n Brent crude has now dipped below $105 a barrel, slightly lower on the day.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Updated at\u00a008.38 EDT<\/p>\n Procter & Gamble has become the latest company to warn that the Iran war is pushing up its costs.<\/strong><\/p>\n In its latest financial results, P&G flagged that now expects higher commodity costs to cost it around $150m after tax this financial year, on top of $400, of higher costs from tariffs.<\/p>\n Despite that, P&G is sticking with its previous financial guidance, after reporting sales growth of 7% in the last quarter.<\/p>\n Shailesh Jejurikar<\/strong>, president and chief executive officer of P&G<\/strong>, says:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cWe\u2019re increasing investments to accelerate momentum with consumers despite the challenging geopolitical and economic environment, while still maintaining our guidance ranges for the fiscal year.<\/p>\n We continue to believe the best path to sustainable, balanced growth is by strengthening execution of our integrated growth strategy. We are confident in the progress we\u2019re making and excited about the longer-term opportunity to leverage P&G\u2019s strengths and unique capabilities to create the CPG [consumer packaged goods] company of the future.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n The oil price has hit its highest level since the US and Iran agreed a ceasefire more than two weeks ago.<\/strong><\/p>\n Brent crude traded as high as $107.48 a barrel this morning, its highest level since 7 April, the day when the US and Iran agreed to a conditional ceasefire.<\/p>\n <\/span>The Brent crude oil price over the last three months<\/span> Photograph: LSEG<\/p>\n That deal included a temporary reopening of the strait of Hormuz, after Donald Trump had threatened Iran with widespread destruction.<\/p>\n But with the strait still largely blockaged, and oil production in the region having more than halved since the war began (see earlier post), anxiety over the conflict is rising again today.<\/p>\n Brent crude had been trading around $72 a barrel before the war began, and hit $119.50 in early March (corrected).<\/p>\n Oil is up today despite Trump announcing last night that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would be extended by three weeks.<\/p>\n But, <\/strong>when asked how long he was willing to wait for a long-term peace deal with Iran, Trump replied: \u201cDon\u2019t rush me\u201d.<\/p>\n The risks to the oil price \u201cremain tilted to the upside\u201d, Fawad Razaqzada,<\/strong> market analyst at Forex.com, <\/strong>explains, as the US-Iran stalemate drags on.<\/p>\n Razaqzada <\/strong>adds:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cOil has been on a firm upward trajectory this week, clearly driven by the collapse of planned talks between the US and Iran.<\/p>\n Tehran has refused to engage while the naval blockade remains in place, fuelling concerns over tightening supply and pushing prices well above $100 per barrel again.<\/p>\n There was a brief pause when Trump opted to extend the ceasefire, but the effect proved short-lived. With no clear timeline for negotiations and both sides entrenched, markets remain in limbo \u2014 and prices continue to grind higher.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Updated at\u00a011.02 EDT<\/p>\n Sarah Butler<\/span><\/p>\n Fertiliser maker Yara has warned of tight supply compared to demand in the months ahead as the blockage of the strait of Hormuz had led to a \u201cglobal urea supply shock\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n The Norwegian firm said affected production in several countries, and this had been \u201cfurther amplified by Russian nitrogen plants affected by drone attacks\u201d.<\/p>\n The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts around 1\/3 of global traded urea, as well as other key raw materials for fertilizer production including natural gas, ammonia, phosphates and sulphur.<\/p>\n The company revealed a better than expected 40% rise in quarterly underlying profits to $898m as the price of fertiliser increased. It said it was able to maintain high production levels \u201cenabling reliable supply\u201d of fertiliser by being flexible about where it sourced ammonia when gas prices rose in Europe.<\/p>\n Svein Tore Holsether<\/strong>, the chief executive of Yara<\/strong>, said:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cGlobal crop prices are only marginally increasing while input costs have increased, and that\u2019s putting an additional burden on farmers, and farmers across the world did not have robust \u200bmargins before this.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Russia\u2019s central bank has cut interest rates in an attempt to boost economic growth.<\/strong><\/p>\n The Bank of Russia has lowered its benchmark rate by 50 basis points, or half a percentage point, to 14.50%.<\/p>\n The reduction follows signs that Russia\u2019s economy is ailing despite the fiscal boost from higher oil prices.<\/p>\n The Bank of Russia says:<\/p>\n double quotation markAccording to high-frequency data, the Russian economy<\/strong> slowed in 2026 Q1, in part due to the adjustment to the earlier tax changes.<\/p>\n The other contributors were a fewer number of business days and unfavourable weather conditions. Investment activity remains subdued. Consumer demand growth continues to decelerate, despite a slight pick-up in March.<\/p>\n Taking into account that economic activity dynamics in 2026 Q1 were largely driven by one-off factors, the Bank of Russia has retained its GDP growth forecast for 2026 at 0.5\u20131.5%.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n European stock markets are on track for their first weekly loss in over one month.<\/strong><\/p>\n The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has dropped by almost 2.8% so far this week. That would be its first weekly decline since 16-20 March, after four weeks of gains.<\/p>\n Today, the Stoxx<\/strong> 600<\/strong> is down around 0.9%, with Germany\u2019s Dax<\/strong> losing 0.5% and France\u2019s CAC 40<\/strong> down 1.2%. In London, the FTSE<\/strong> 100<\/strong> is now down 66 points or -0.64%.<\/p>\n Markets are entering the final day of the trading week in a cautious mood, says Jim<\/strong> Reid<\/strong> of Deutsche Bank<\/strong>:<\/p>\n double quotation markUS-Iran tensions show no signs of easing while the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed.<\/p>\n Ahead of the weekend, there have been no signs of further talks, with Trump saying the \u201cI don\u2019t want to rush myself\u201d when it comes to making a deal, while also claiming that \u201cwhatever I\u2019m doing, it seems to be working very well\u201d<\/strong>. Meanwhile, we saw Iran\u2019s President, Foreign Minister and Parliamentary Speaker share similar messages of regime \u201cunity\u201d in short succession last night, after Trump posts claimed \u201cinfighting\u201d between \u201cHardliners\u201d and \u201cModerates\u201d in Iran.<\/p>\n The rhetoric had also leant in an escalatory direction earlier yesterday, with Trump posting that he\u2019d ordered the US Navy to shoot boats placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>. So all that has left lingering uncertainty, even as Israel and Lebanon have agreed overnight to extend their ceasefire by three weeks according to the White House.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Container shipping group Hapag<\/strong>–Lloyd<\/strong> has reported that one of its ships has crossed the Strait of Hormuz but did not have any information on the circumstances or timing, Reuters reports<\/em>.<\/p>\n That leaves four Hapag<\/strong> ships in the Gulf, which the company says are staffed with 100 crew, who are well-supplied with food and water.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Updated at\u00a006.45 EDT<\/p>\n Gulf crude oil production has more than halved since the Iran war began, a new report from Goldman Sachs shows.<\/strong><\/p>\n Goldman<\/strong> have calculated that oil production has fallen by 14.5 million barrels per day, or 57%, from pre-war levels, due to the closure of the strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy production facilities in the region.<\/p>\n <\/span> Illustration: Goldman Sachs<\/p>\n The Investment Bank predicts that Gulf production is likely to mostly recover within a few months of reopening assuming:<\/p>\n no renewed strikes on oil assets and<\/p>\n<\/li>\n a full and safe reopening of the Strait in coming months.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n But, they also see \u201csignificant risks\u201d that the last leg of the recovery will take significantly longer and may not fully materialize, especially if the Strait were to remain closed for much longer.<\/p>\n Interestingly, Goldman<\/strong> estimate that the available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has halved since the start of the war, which would make it harder to boost supply once a peace deal is reached.<\/p>\n Goldman<\/strong> say that once the Strait safely re-opens, the key potential constraints on production will likely be<\/p>\n availability of pipeline capacity and empty vessels to destock previously produced oil, and<\/p>\n<\/li>\n availability of materials and workers for field workovers, and<\/p>\n<\/li>\n well flow rates<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n Share<\/p>\n UK companies are expecting to hike prices at a much faster rate over the next year, as the Iran war drives up energy costs.<\/strong><\/p>\n New data from the Bank of England shows that companies expect to have raised prices by 4.4% by April 2027.<\/p>\n Back in February, firms had only expected to have raised their prices by 3.4% in a year\u2019s time.<\/p>\n The increases suggests firms are \u201cadjusting their expectations as a result of the recent increases in energy prices,\u201d the Bank says.<\/p>\n Its latest survey of chief financial officers from small, medium and large UK businesses also found that expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in the three months to April, up from 3.1% in the three months to March.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n The average interest rates on UK mortgages are continuing to slip back from the highs set earlier this month.<\/strong><\/p>\n Data provider Moneyfacts<\/strong> reports:<\/p>\n The average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.81%. This is down from 5.82% the previous working day.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.70%. This is down from 5.72% the previous working day.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Share<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Oil hits highest level since US-Iran ceasefire began The oil price has hit its highest level since the US and Iran agreed a ceasefire more than two weeks ago. Brent crude traded as high as $107.48 a barrel this morning, its highest level since 7 April, the day when the US and Iran agreed to<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48718,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[3855,303,1893,267,1746,475,419,3190,102,5532,5380,268,6184,22231],"class_list":{"0":"post-48717","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-began","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-ceasefire","11":"tag-conflict","12":"tag-crude","13":"tag-gulf","14":"tag-happened","15":"tag-highest","16":"tag-hits","17":"tag-hurts","18":"tag-level","19":"tag-oil","20":"tag-production","21":"tag-usiran"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48717\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/48718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Closing post<\/h2>\n
Iran conflict knocks US consumer confidence<\/h2>\n
\u2018The damage is done\u2019: global oil crisis has changed fossil fuel industry for ever, IEA chief says<\/h2>\n
Justice Dept to close investigation into Powell over Federal Reserve renovations<\/h2>\n
Intel shares surge after blowout results<\/h2>\n
RAC: Pump prices falling but slower than anticipated.<\/h2>\n
Oil hits highest level since US-Iran ceasefire began<\/h2>\n
Fertiliser supplies hit by ‘global urea supply shock’<\/h2>\n
European markets head for first weekly loss since late March<\/h2>\n
Hapag-Lloyd says one ship has crossed strait of Hormuz<\/h2>\n
Goldman: Gulf oil supply is 57% below pre-war levels<\/h2>\n
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UK companies ramp up selling price expectations after surge in energy prices<\/h2>\n
UK mortgage rates slip back again<\/h2>\n
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