\n<\/p>\n
Brent crude is on course for a record monthly rise of nearly 60%, exceeding gains it made during the 1990 Gulf War.<\/p>\n
The global oil benchmark is currently trading 3.5% higher at $116.051 a barrel \u2013 up 59% so far in March \u2013 while New York light crude rose 2% to $101.6 a barrel.<\/p>\n
Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels, which are backed by Iran, launched their first attacks on Israel <\/strong>since the start of the US-Israel war with Iran <\/strong>over the weekend. More US troops have arrived in the Middle East while the Israeli military said today that is it attacking government infrastructure \u201cthroughout Tehran\u201d.<\/p>\n Vandana Hari<\/strong>, founder of oil market analysts Vanda Insights, said:<\/p>\n double quotation markThe market has all but discounted the prospect of a negotiated end to the war, Trump\u2019s claims of ongoing \u2018direct and indirect\u2019 talks with Iran notwithstanding, and is bracing for a sharp escalation in military hostilities, which is a bullish signal for crude, with huge uncertainties on the timing and nature of the outcome.<\/p>\n Natural gas prices have also gone up again, amid concerns that supplies will be further disrupted. Dutch month-ahead futures rose 1.6% to just over \u20ac55 a megawatt-hour.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Updated at\u00a006.59 EDT<\/p>\n <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n <\/span>Show key events only<\/p>\n Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n Wall Street stocks have pared gains, and the Nasdaq has turned negative.<\/strong><\/p>\n The S&P 500 is now up just 0.1% while the Dow Jones is 0.4% ahead, and the Nasdaq slipped by 0.1%.<\/p>\n In Europe, stocks are holding onto their gains, with the FTSE 100 index in London up 1.2%, or 115 points, at 10.083. The German, French, Italian and Spanish indices have climbed between 0.4% and 0.6%.<\/p>\n Brent crude<\/strong>, the global oil benchmark, has gained 2.5% to $115.38 a barrel, and touched $116.89 a barrel earlier today. It is on track for its biggest monthly increase on record following the US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February which triggered a wider Middle East conflict.<\/p>\n You can follow the latest news on the Middle East here:<\/p>\n Our other main stories:<\/p>\n Thank you for reading. We\u2019ll be back tomorrow. Bye! \u2013 JK<\/em><\/p>\n SharePhillip Inman<\/span><\/p>\n There is much speculation about how the Bank England will react to the spillover effects from the Middle East conflict.<\/strong><\/p>\n High inflation will need to be tackled by higher interest rates, say international investors.<\/p>\n This sentiment has supported betting by financial markets, which agree that Threadneedle Street policymakers will vote for at least two increases in the cost of borrowing this year and possibly a third, pushing interest rates from 3.75% to 4.5%. The first move could be as early as next month.<\/p>\n Many economists say a rise in the consumer prices index (CPI) from 3% in February to 4% or 5% is unlikely to trigger higher borrowing costs.<\/p>\n The basis for this claim is an unfashionable corner of the central bank\u2019s financial data output.<\/p>\n Paul Dales<\/strong>, the chief UK economist at the consultantcy Capital Economics, says he has been looking at the annual growth rate of the M4 money supply in today\u2019s mortgage and credit figures.<\/p>\n M4 \u2013 the broadest measure of money circulating in the economy \u2013 is the defining signal that inflationary pressures are gaining a head of steam. That\u2019s according to monetarist economists, who were popular in the early 1980s.<\/p>\n Margaret Thatcher<\/strong>\u2019s favourite economists were monetarists. And there are still devotees who argue that it provides a clear signal \u2013 when M4 is growing quickly \u2013 that too much money is chasing too few goods and services, leading to high inflation.<\/p>\n M4 rose from 3.6% in January to 3.9% in February. But as Dales says, that\u2019s a long way from the peak of 15.2% in February 2021, which he says contributed to the most persistent inflation problem of recent years.<\/p>\n double quotation markIndeed, although the relationship is not tight, the current rate points to CPI inflation being around 2-3% in 18 months\u2019 time.<\/p>\n What\u2019s more, the tightening in financial conditions since the Iran War began at the end of February suggests that credit won\u2019t be flowing freely through the economy in the coming months, or if it is, it will certainly be more expensive.<\/p>\n His conclusion? A reluctance by banks and other lenders to expand credit (and consumers to demand it) will restrain some of the inflationary effects from the Iran war \u201cand may mean the Bank of England won\u2019t need to raise interest rates from 3.75%,\u201d Dales says.<\/p>\n double quotation markOr at the least won\u2019t need to raise them to the 4.50% that is almost fully priced into the financial markets.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Wall Street has opened higher. The S&P 500 index rose 51 points, or 0.8%, to 6,420 at the open, while the Dow Jones opened nearly 400 points higher at 45,562, up 0.88%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 157 points, or 0.75%, to 21,105.<\/p>\n In his latest post on Truth Social today, Donald Trump<\/strong> claimed that the US is in \u201cserious discussions\u201d with a \u201cnew and more reasonable regime\u201d to end its war on Iran, but threatened to \u201cobliterate\u201d Iran\u2019s strategically crucial Kharg Island if a deal is not reached shortly.<\/p>\n double quotation markGreat progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately \u201cOpen for Business,\u201d we will conclude our lovely \u201cstay\u201d in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet \u201ctouched.\u201d<\/p>\n This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime\u2019s 47 year \u201cReign of Terror.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Brent crude rose as high as $116.89 a barrel earlier today, and is now trading 1.4% higher at $114.21 a barrel.<\/p>\n US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent<\/strong> sounded optimistic when he talked about a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for passage of cargo ships, and said the administration is moving to address the shortage of global oil supplies.<\/p>\n Bessent said in an interview on Fox News.<\/p>\n double quotation markOver time, the US is going to retake control of the strait, and there will be freedom of navigation \u2014 whether it is through US escorts or a multinational escort.<\/p>\n Bessent said the global oil market is \u201cin deficit about 10m to 12m barrels a day, and we\u2019re making up for that deficit.\u201d<\/p>\n The International Energy Agency\u2019s coordinated release of strategic reserves amounts to about 4m barrels a day towards that deficit, he said.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n When looking at possible next steps for the European Central Bank, markets have started to price in up to four rate hikes this year.<\/strong> ING economist Carsten Brzeski<\/strong> said:<\/p>\n double quotation markIndeed, the central bank made a hawkish pivot at the last policy meeting \u2013 but we think that markets are too much guided by an overly simplistic reading of the 2022 episode and the narrative that the ECB was far too late reacting to an oil price shock. In our view, however, there are important differences between the current situation and 2022.<\/p>\n Back then, the ECB was emerging from an extremely accommodative stance and normalising policy from negative interest rates and quantitative easing. With hindsight, the biggest policy mistake was probably the delayed response to an energy price shock that ultimately morphed into a broader inflation surge. Learning from that episode, though, does not mean a rate hike is imminent.<\/p>\n As long as the energy price shock remains broadly contained \u2013 including first\u2011round knock-on effects \u2013 it remains far from certain that the ECB will react at all. For rate hikes to come back to the table, the Bank would need to see a rise in inflation expectations and a broadening of inflationary pressures across the economy. So far, the war in the Middle East has instead weighed on business and consumer confidence. Meanwhile, the labour market is entering this energy shock in a weaker position than in 2022, and governments\u2019 fiscal pockets are more constrained, making large\u2011scale stimulus to offset higher energy prices less likely.<\/p>\n Three potential pain points lie ahead for the ECB<\/strong>, he said.<\/p>\n double quotation marka psychological one, i.e., headline inflation above 4%, reviving uncomfortable memories of 2022; an analytical one, with core inflation above 3%, signalling broader price pressures; and a credibility one, i.e., a surge in survey\u2011based inflation expectations, which would constrain the ECB\u2019s room for inaction.<\/p>\n Even if the latest developments in the war and in energy prices have started to shift our base case scenario more towards our adverse scenario, we find it hard to see the ECB moving at the next meeting at the end of April. By then, there will be no new forecasts, and only limited data available: March inflation, a handful of country inflation releases for April, and initial estimates of first\u2011quarter GDP on the day of the meeting. In all honesty, that does not look sufficient to move the needle, unless the ghosts of 2022 are really keeping policymakers awake at night.<\/p>\n For the June meeting, the story is different. Simply put, if we are still talking about the war in the Middle East and high energy prices by then, a rate hike is clearly possible. However, this is not our base case, as we expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen before then.<\/p>\n To sum up: the energy price shock is transitory for now but a broadening could still trigger an interest rate hike from the ECB.<\/strong><\/p>\n double quotation markAll in all, today\u2019s German inflation data shows that, for the time being, the new inflation wave stemming from the war in the Middle East is \u2018only\u2019 an energy price shock. Any ECB reaction to this new price shock will clearly depend on whether soaring energy prices will find their way into the rest of the economy or not. Needless to say that a broadening of inflationary pressures and a de-anchoring of inflation expectations could trigger an ECB rate hike. For now, however \u2013 at the risk of using a forbidden word, at least at the ECB \u2013 the energy price shock falls under the label of \u2018transitory\u2019.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Carsten Brzeski<\/strong>, global head of macro at ING, said the jump in German inflation to 2.8% in March \u201cshouldn\u2019t be a surprise to anyone\u201d as the war in the Middle East entered its fifth week, and both energy prices and uncertainty remain high.<\/p>\n While the national inflation measure came in at 2.7% year-on-year, from 1.9% in February, the European measure surged to 2.8% from 2%. At 1.2% month-on-month, March saw the largest monthly price increase since 2022.<\/p>\n double quotation markAt the same time, however, today\u2019s numbers also showed that for the time being, the inflation shock remains limited to energy prices as core inflation and services inflation remained unchanged at 2.5% and 3.2% respectively.<\/p>\n Oil prices have always been the most important and direct link between geopolitical developments and the real economy. While the war in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz provide further evidence of shifting geopolitics and will have longer-term implications for the European economy, the rise in energy prices is already very real. In Germany, if gasoline prices remained at their current levels until the end of the year, the loss in purchasing power for consumers would already be larger than in 2022.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s inflation data shows that a first inflation wave is clearly on its way.<\/strong> While currently available regional data suggests that the inflation surge in March was mainly driven by energy prices, knock-on effects on transportation costs, food prices and other industrial products will follow. The only question is whether this will be a single, time-limited wave or whether it will eventually also lead to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations and higher wages. However, even if it is only \u2018one\u2019 large inflation wave, German inflation should increase further, remaining in the 3% to 4% range for most of the year.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n In the UK, petrol prices have gone up further as the Middle East conflict escalates, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launching strikes on Israel for the first time since Israel and the US jointly attacked Iran on 28 February.<\/p>\n Average petrol prices have now reached 152p a litre \u2013 the highest in 28 months \u2013 while diesel has topped the 180p mark to hit 181.2p, a price not seen since December 2022, according to the RAC motoring group.<\/p>\n RAC head of policy Simon Williams<\/strong> said:<\/p>\n double quotation markCompared to the start of the Iran conflict, it costs \u00a310.55 more to fill up a typical family car that runs on petrol, and \u00a321.35 more for a comparative diesel car.<\/p>\n The financial strain on the eight-in-10 motorists that tell us they depend on their cars continues to build, and at a particularly rapid rate for those who drive diesel vehicles.<\/p>\n We encourage drivers to continue to fill up as normal and use free apps such as myRAC to pay the lowest price possible each time they fill up.<\/p>\n <\/span>A petrol tanker delivery at a Shell petrol station in Slough, Berkshire where prices were 156.9p for petrol and 178.9p for diesel on 29 March.<\/span> Photograph: Maureen McLean\/ShutterstockShare<\/p>\n In Germany, inflation picked up sharply in March on the back of a surge in energy prices caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran.<\/p>\n Inflation, on the EU harmonised measure, jumped to an annual rate of 2.8% in Europe\u2019s largest economy, from 2% in February, according to data from the federal statistics office.<\/p>\n Energy prices rose for the first time since December 2023, jumping 7.2% compared with the same month last year. Food prices edged up by 0.9% year on year.<\/p>\n Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, remained at 2.5%.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Updated at\u00a008.28 EDT<\/p>\n Wise<\/strong> is rolling out everyday bank accounts in the UK, in an attempt to grab market share from traditional highstreet banks and fintechs.<\/p>\n The London-based money transfer company said it is launching a current account that will hold money and pay out a 3.26% variable interest rate on balances. Customers will also be able to set up direct debits for recurring payments such as bill payments.<\/p>\n The fintech firm, known for its cheap foreign exchange transfers, is expanding its digital banking services in an increasingly competitive market. Wise served 3 million individuals and businesses last year who collectively hold \u00a38bn in their accounts. Globally, the company has more than 15.6 million active customers with a total of \u00a327.5bn in their Wise Accounts.<\/p>\n Rival Monzo<\/strong> has 15 million personal and business customers, while Revolut<\/strong> has 13 million in the UK, where it recently received its UK banking licence.<\/p>\n Revolut has started rolling out current accounts to a small number of new UK customers and wants to gradually expand this.<\/p>\n Nilan Peiris<\/strong>, chief product officer at Wise, said:<\/p>\n double quotation markBanks haven\u2019t kept pace with what customers expect for their current account. People shouldn\u2019t need separate accounts for home and abroad.<\/p>\n With the Wise current account, we\u2019re giving customers a smarter way to manage their daily financial needs. They can hold and fully access their money while getting a return, easily spend on everyday purchases and split bills, and send and receive money quickly across borders \u2013 all at a low cost with no hidden fees.<\/p>\n The London-listed shares rose slightly on the news.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Britain has imposed a \u00a3390,000 penalty on Apple<\/strong>\u2019s Irish subsidiary for breaching its sanctions on Russia.<\/p>\n A notice from the UK government said Ireland-based Apple Distribution International<\/strong>, a subsidiary of the US tech giant, had made funds available to a designated person without a licence in relation to two payments in 2022.<\/p>\n Apple said it adheres to the laws in countries where it operates, and takes compliance with sanctions \u201cextremely seriously\u201d. It said in a statement:<\/p>\n double quotation markAfter identifying two payments to a developer that days earlier had become affiliated with a sanctioned entity, we promptly and proactively reported our finding to the UK government.<\/p>\n We are constantly working to enhance our already robust compliance protocols, which are consistent with industry standards.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent crude on track for record monthly rise of nearly 60% Brent crude is on course for a record monthly rise of nearly 60%, exceeding gains it made during the 1990 Gulf War. The global oil benchmark is currently trading 3.5% higher at $116.051 a barrel \u2013 up 59% so far in March \u2013 while<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47634,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[673,1745,303,1746,419,3479,84,214,3164,268,345,81,11659],"class_list":{"0":"post-47633","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-attack","9":"tag-brent","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-crude","12":"tag-happened","13":"tag-houthis","14":"tag-iran","15":"tag-israel","16":"tag-launch","17":"tag-oil","18":"tag-rises","19":"tag-trump","20":"tag-yemeni"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47633"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47633\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/47634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Closing summary<\/h2>\n
Wall Street opens higher; Trump claims us ‘in serious discussions’ with new Iran regime<\/h2>\n
Bessent: US to ‘retake control of strait of Hormuz over time,’ eyes escorts<\/h2>\n
‘First inflation wave clearly on its way,’ German inflation data shows<\/h2>\n
UK Petrol prices hit 28-month high<\/h2>\n
German inflation jumps in March due to Iran war<\/h2>\n
Wise launches current account in UK<\/h2>\n
UK fines Apple subsidiary for breaching Russia sanctions<\/h2>\n