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O<\/span>n a steep hillside in western El Salvador, Oscar Leiva watches rainfall in December, a month that once marked the start of the dry season. During this harvest cycle, flowering came early and then stalled. A heatwave followed. What remains of the crop is uneven, lower in quality and more expensive to produce than the last.<\/p>\n For Leiva and his family, coffee has never been just a crop. His mother, Marina Marinero, remembers when the rains arrived on schedule and the harvest could be planned months in advance. Today, the calendar no longer holds. Decisions about pruning, fertilising and hiring labour feel like educated guesses. Each mistake carries a cost the family cannot afford.<\/p>\n Q&A<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span>Show<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n As the climate crisis deepens, Latin America\u2019s coffee producers \u2013 from the steep hillsides of Central America to the forests of Brazil and the Andean slopes of Colombia \u2013 are facing an existential threat.<\/p>\n While global markets still project an image of abundance, small farmers across the region are struggling with rising costs, unpredictable weather and a shrinking workforce, forcing many to question whether coffee farming remains viable.<\/p>\n The climate crisis poses an escalating threat\u00a0by driving up temperatures in key growing regions. A recent Climate Central analysis found that the world\u2019s five largest producers \u2013 Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia \u2013 now face an average of 57 additional days of damaging heat each year.<\/p>\n The problem is evident across much of Latin America, a region that includes leading producers such as Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala and Peru, and accounts for more than half of global output. According to Climate Central, Brazil, the largest producer, now endures 70 more hot days a year.<\/p>\n \u201cHigh temperatures place coffee plants under stress, reducing much of their productive potential. This is affecting coffee plantations around the world, as most are located within the same latitudes,\u201d says Celso Vegro, an agronomist and researcher at S\u00e3o Paulo\u2019s state agriculture agency.<\/p>\n According to Vegro, global coffee production has fallen short of expectations since 2021. Countries have been unable to keep pace with growing demand, leading to the depletion of global stocks, which has driven prices higher. \u201cThis year, Brazil\u2019s harvest is expected to be large and to replenish supplies. But it will be only a temporary reprieve, as the same climate conditions persist,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n In a new series, Coffee crisis, the Guardian spoke with producers from four Latin American countries to explore the challenges they face.<\/p>\n Thank you for your feedback.<\/p>\n For generations, coffee shaped El Salvador\u2019s rural economy, structuring land use, labour and exports across much of the country. By the mid-1970s, El Salvador ranked among the world\u2019s leading coffee producers, with harvests exceeding 5 million quintales<\/em> (a quintal is equivalent to about 46kg). Now, national production struggles to reach 1 million quintales. The decline reflects more than market cycles.<\/p>\n <\/span>Land once planted with shaded coffee is increasingly sold for real estate development<\/span><\/p>\n Decades of land restructuring, intensifying climate shocks and rural migration have hollowed out the sector, reshaping livelihoods and the landscapes. Climate volatility has made harvests increasingly unpredictable, disrupting flowering cycles, reducing yields and reducing quality for small farmers who lack the financial buffers to absorb losses.<\/p>\n double quotation markWhen prices keep producers at subsistence level, adaptation becomes impossibleCecibel Romero, coffee researcher<\/p>\n Market signals, meanwhile, point in the opposite direction. After a record rally earlier in 2025, Arabica bean prices are expected to plunge as production rebounds in Colombia, Brazil and other leading exporters. Rabobank forecasts that growing global surpluses over the next two seasons could push prices sharply lower, even as farmers in climate-vulnerable regions face rising costs.<\/p>\n Cecibel Romero, a researcher on coffee production, says the sector faces overlapping problems that go beyond climate alone. \u201cThere is a real climate crisis, but there is also a social crisis,\u201d she says, adding that rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and diseases such as coffee rust have exposed longstanding weaknesses in how the commodity has traditionally been produced.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen prices keep producers at subsistence level,\u201d she says, \u201cadaptation becomes impossible.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/span>An arabica plant at the Renacer coffee production school, which promotes long-term stability rather than maximum yields, in Juayua, El Salvador<\/span><\/p>\n Romero argues that this production model prioritised yields and short-term fixes over soil health, shade management and resilience. After significant rust outbreaks in the early 2010s, many producers replanted with new varieties that promised resistance but often delivered lower quality and limited durability. \u201cThose decisions ended up hitting the system again a few years later,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n As coffee\u2019s economic importance in El Salvador declined, institutional support was reduced. Public support services weakened, renovation programmes fragmented and access to affordable credit became narrowed. Producers were left to navigate climate risk, disease outbreaks and market volatility largely on their own.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, in Honduras, Central America\u2019s largest coffee producer, the pressures are similar even as national output remains higher.<\/p>\n Juan Luis Hern\u00e1ndez, a forest engineer who has worked on environmental projects within the Honduran Coffee Institute, says the climate crisis has squeezed the margin for error.<\/p>\n <\/span>A coffee plant flowers at a Caf\u00e9 San Rafael estate in Copan Ruinas, Honduras<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cProducers are being asked to adapt,\u201d he says. \u201cBut adaptation has a cost.\u201d<\/p>\n Managing shade, soil restoration, water protection and monitoring disease require investment, time and labour, Hern\u00e1ndez says, adding that those resources are unevenly distributed.<\/p>\n <\/span>Gerardo V\u00e1squez<\/span><\/p>\n In Cop\u00e1n, Gerardo V\u00e1squez, a small coffee producer, manages an 8-hectare (20-acre) family farm while advising others. He trained with the Honduran Coffee Institute and works on soil analysis, variety selection and agroforestry systems. Even with that background, V\u00e1squez says survival is far from guaranteed. Establishing a single manzana<\/em> (a traditional Latin American unit of area, equal to about 0.7ha) of coffee now costs about 200,000 lempiras (\u00a35,600) spread over three years.<\/p>\n Fertiliser prices have risen sharply since the pandemic and labour shortages have pushed harvest wages higher. \u201cWhen you add everything up,\u201d V\u00e1squez says, \u201charvest, processing, transport, you spend more than 3,000 lempiras (\u00a383) just to get one quintal of parchment coffee.\u201d<\/p>\n Constant rain makes drying difficult, forcing some to sell \u201ccherries\u201d \u2013 the fruit on the coffee plant \u2013 directly from the field at lower prices. Others rely on intermediaries for cash advances, limiting their ability to negotiate prices later.<\/p>\n <\/span>Climate pressure is pushing coffee uphill. Forty years ago, coffee struggled above 1,000 metres; now producers are planting higher each decade <\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe producer sells because he needs money that day,\u201d V\u00e1squez says. \u201cThat producer feels relieved, but he is not earning anything, just recovering part of what he spent.\u201d<\/p>\n double quotation markFifteen or 20 years ago, during the coffee boom, prices were good and all the conditions existed that don\u2019t exist any moreCarlos Guerra, caf\u00e9 owner<\/p>\n The climate crisis is also reshaping where coffee can be grown. V\u00e1squez estimates that farms below 1,000m altitude are increasingly vulnerable to heat stress, pests and disease. Yields fall as costs rise, making production harder to sustain.<\/p>\n For most producers, moving uphill or absorbing losses is not an option. But a small number of farms have been able to buy time. Two decades ago, the seasons followed a predictable rhythm. Carlos Guerra, co-owner of Caf\u00e9 San Rafael, says flowering is now staggered. \u201cWhite everywhere, with the smell of jasmine taking over the mountain,\u201d he says, noting that harvests stretch later into the year, increasing costs and reducing returns.<\/p>\n <\/span>Carlos Guerra, a co-owner of Caf\u00e9 San Rafael<\/span><\/p>\n Labour has become one of the most acute pressures. Coffee farming is physically demanding, poorly paid and increasingly unstable, driving younger people to leave rural areas.<\/p>\n \u201cFifteen or 20 years ago, during the coffee boom, prices were good and all the conditions existed that don\u2019t exist any more,\u201d Guerra says. \u201cBack then, people were eager to work. Now, if you are lucky, you find 20 or 30 workers.\u201d<\/p>\n For producers, that shortage limits the extent of adaptation that is even possible. Jes\u00fas Guerra says: \u201cWith cattle, you can introduce technology. But coffee is different. You cannot mechanise selecting ripe cherries or pruning. That requires human judgment.\u201d<\/p>\n Climate pressure is also pushing coffee uphill. Forty years ago, coffee struggled above 1,000m; now producers are planting higher each decade. \u201cWith warmer climates,\u201d Guerra says, \u201cdiseases like rust have spread more aggressively.\u201d<\/p>\n Adaptation exists but comes with trade-offs. Producers experiment with shade and soil restoration. \u201cWe work with more shade,\u201d Jes\u00fas Guerra says. \u201cBut that also means lower yields. There is always a balance.\u201d<\/p>\n Carlos Guerra frames the dilemma: \u201cIf you move from producing 40 quintales per manzana to five or 10 under shade,\u201d he says, \u201cyou have to ask yourself if you accept lower income, or if you intensify production with chemicals.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/span>Caf\u00e9 San Rafael\u2019s roastery allows the operation to compensate for fluctuations in cherry quality<\/span><\/p>\n At Caf\u00e9 San Rafael, adaptation is treated as a daily concern. On the estate, changes include managing shade, protecting soils and adjusting harvest timing. Post-harvest, tighter control over fermentation and drying helps compensate for uneven cherry quality. The roastery allows the operation to absorb fluctuations.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have a window to sell coffee to a differentiated market,\u201d Carlos Guerra says. \u201cMany producers do not have that option.\u201d<\/p>\n Emeric Seguin, director of sourcing and sustainability at Fant\u00f4me, a Quebec-based speciality coffee roaster working with smallholders in Central America, says distrust is widespread as farmers feel undervalued, buyers worry about inconsistency and co-operatives are caught between both. \u201cEveryone feels as if they are the one being scammed,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n <\/span>A barista makes a specialty coffee at Caf\u00e9 San Rafael<\/span><\/p>\n Speciality coffee is often presented as a solution, offering higher prices and closer relationships. In practice, access is uneven. Certification costs, processing infrastructure and export logistics remain barriers for many producers.<\/p>\n Seguin says the industry\u2019s definition of quality is narrow. \u201cQuality is treated as something objective,\u201d he says. \u201cBut it is really a cultural agreement decided in tasting rooms, not on farms.\u201d<\/p>\n Some initiatives are trying to shift that balance. In El Salvador, Renacer, a coffee production school led by agronomists and producers, promotes ecological practices focused on soil health, shade restoration and long-term stability rather than maximum yields.<\/p>\n Sigfredo Corado, one of its lead agronomists, says the goal is not to eliminate risk but to reduce extremes. \u201cYou may not harvest 50 quintales one year, but you also will not fall to 10 the next,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n <\/span>Coffee farming is physically demanding, poorly paid and increasingly unstable, making labour one of the most acute pressures<\/span><\/p>\n Rabobank predicts surpluses could lower prices, making coffee less viable for smallholders. As coffee weakens, land once planted with shaded coffee is increasingly converted to sugarcane or sold for development.<\/p>\n Back on the hillside, Leiva walks around his plot, counting the losses. Planning for the next cycle feels premature but unavoidable. Each season now requires decisions made without reliable forecasts. Coffee is adapting across Central America. The question is who can afford to adapt to it \u2013 and who will be left behind.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" On a steep hillside in western El Salvador, Oscar Leiva watches rainfall in December, a month that once marked the start of the dry season. During this harvest cycle, flowering came early and then stalled. A heatwave followed. What remains of the crop is uneven, lower in quality and more expensive to produce than the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46374,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[1378,3932,3448,1600,3919,1123,23011,269,23696,98,2640],"class_list":{"0":"post-46373","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-americas","9":"tag-central","10":"tag-coffee","11":"tag-fall","12":"tag-feels","13":"tag-global","14":"tag-growers","15":"tag-prices","16":"tag-scammed","17":"tag-small","18":"tag-survive"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=46373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46373\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/46374"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=46373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=46373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=46373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}What is the Coffee crisis series?<\/h4>\n