\n<\/p>\n
A prolonged energy crisis triggered by the widening war in the Middle East could offer an economic lifeline to Russia\u2019s war machine at a moment when it was beginning to show signs of strain.<\/p>\n
The sharp weakening and possible collapse of the regime in Iran would deprive the Kremlin of one of its closest regional partners. But that setback could be outweighed by an economic windfall if disruption pushes buyers toward Russian energy, alongside a possible slowdown in western arms supplies to Ukraine.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen a good fifth of global oil supply and roughly a quarter of seaborne trade is effectively locked up, that\u2019s a boon for Russia,\u201d said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre and leading expert on Russia\u2019s energy sector.<\/p>\n
Brent crude rose more than 7% on Tuesday to above $80 a barrel, adding to Monday\u2019s 7.2% jump, after a halt to shipping in the strait of Hormuz followed by Iranian missile and drone strikes on regional infrastructure.<\/p>\n
The surge pushed prices to their highest level since July 2024 and they are predicted to rise further.<\/p>\n
India and China \u2013 among the largest buyers of Middle Eastern crude \u2013 would be hardest hit by any extended disruption and could be forced to increase purchases from Moscow.<\/p>\n
While Beijing has long diversified its oil imports across the Middle East, Africa and Russia, any sustained disruption to Gulf supplies \u2013 particularly from Iran \u2013 could speed up a deeper tilt towards Russian barrels, Vakulenko said.<\/p>\n
<\/span>Petrol trucks lined up at a production facility in Russia.<\/span> Photograph: Maxim Shemetov\/Reuters<\/p>\n India faces a more delicate balancing act. Until recently, Russia was its largest supplier of crude, a relationship that deepened after western sanctions reshaped global energy flows. But under a trade deal struck with Donald Trump last month, New Delhi began replacing some Russian cargoes with oil from the Gulf, cutting imports from Moscow to their lowest level since 2022.<\/p>\n Should Middle Eastern supplies falter, Indian officials are likely to seek greater flexibility from Washington \u2013 reopening the door to increased Russian purchases.<\/p>\n Taken together, such shifts will strengthen Russia\u2019s hand in negotiations for higher prices.<\/p>\n For months, Moscow had been forced to offer steep oil discounts as a glut of global supply and lingering sanctions risks made traders wary of taking Russian barrels. Storage capacity was tightening and there were growing signs that Russia could eventually be forced to curb production as cargoes struggled to find takers.<\/p>\n \u201cSome of the Russian oil that\u2019s been sitting on tankers will definitely find buyers now,\u201d said Vakulenko.<\/p>\n Much depends on how long the crisis lasts. Importing countries typically hold about three months\u2019 worth of oil in advance, and last summer\u2019s 12-day fighting had only a fleeting impact on energy markets. Another question will be how severely the Gulf\u2019s energy infrastructure \u2013 on all sides \u2013 is damaged by the time the fighting ends.<\/p>\n \u201cIf it\u2019s two weeks, it doesn\u2019t matter much. If it\u2019s longer, then things start to get interesting,\u201d Vakulenko said.<\/p>\n Beyond oil, Russia could also benefit from a gas shock. A halt to Qatari LNG exports would leave a gap in the global supply that Russian producers might partially fill, although gas flows are less flexible than oil and harder to reroute at short notice. Russian energy stocks have already reacted, with Gazprom and Novatek among the main gainers on the Moscow exchange.<\/p>\n The timing could scarcely be worse for Ukraine.<\/p>\n Russia\u2019s oil and gas revenues \u2013 vital to financing its war \u2013 fell to a five-year low in 2025 as crude prices softened and exports declined under sanctions. The downturn had raised hopes in Kyiv that Moscow might struggle to sustain its military campaign at the current intensity into 2026.<\/p>\n \u201cFor our budget, the attack on Iran is a big plus,\u201d the prominent Kremlin TV host Vladimir Solovyov gloated to his viewers on Monday. \u201cIf Trump strikes Iranian oilfields, then, as unfortunate as it sounds, we would become one of the few remaining oil-producing countries.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/span>The site of a Russian airstrike on Druzhkivka in the Donetsk region of Ukraine on Monday.<\/span> Photograph: Ukrainian Armed Forces\/Reuters<\/p>\n For Europe, too, the crisis risks reopening divisions over its approach towards Moscow. The EU has been moving to phase out Russian fossil fuels, a policy opposed by Moscow-friendly governments in Hungary and Slovakia and criticised by surging rightwing parties across the bloc.<\/p>\n Norway\u2019s energy minister, Terje Aasland, acknowledged on Tuesday that the escalation in the Middle East could revive debate within the EU over banning Russian gas imports.<\/p>\n \u201cThe EU has been very clear that they want to liberate themselves from Russian oil and gas, but the events of the last three or four days have been difficult,\u201d Aasland told a conference in Oslo. \u201cWith the geopolitical situation we see now, I believe the debate will be revived.\u201d<\/p>\n Kyiv is also concerned about the knock-on military effects. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that Ukraine could face difficulties securing air defence systems, particularly US-made Patriot missiles, if Washington and its regional allies prioritised their own needs.<\/p>\n \u201cWe may have difficulties acquiring missiles and weapons to defend our airspace,\u201d the Ukrainian president told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. \u201cThe Americans and their allies in the Middle East may need them for self-defence.\u201d<\/p>\n He added that Iran\u2019s strikes on Israel last June had already delayed some deliveries.<\/p>\n In the Kremlin, the prevailing mood is one of \u201cwait and see,\u201d one Moscow insider said. \u201cThe world is in turmoil, but this time we\u2019re not at the epicentre,\u201d the source said.<\/p>\n Vladimir Putin has been careful not to criticise Donald Trump too harshly over the bombing of Iran, wary of antagonising a US president he sees as pivotal in putting pressure on Ukraine to accept peace terms on Moscow\u2019s conditions.<\/p>\n Instead, with every increase in oil prices, there is barely concealed satisfaction among Russia\u2019s elite.<\/p>\n \u201c$100+ oil per barrel soon,\u201d Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia\u2019s sovereign wealth fund, wrote on X.<\/p>\n The Fujairah oil industry zone is in the United Arab Emirates, not Iran as stated earlier in a picture caption.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A prolonged energy crisis triggered by the widening war in the Middle East could offer an economic lifeline to Russia\u2019s war machine at a moment when it was beginning to show signs of strain. The sharp weakening and possible collapse of the regime in Iran would deprive the Kremlin of one of its closest regional<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45912,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[267,898,1271,17803,9954,2993,897,2276,523,6842,261],"class_list":{"0":"post-45911","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-conflict","9":"tag-east","10":"tag-economic","11":"tag-flagging","12":"tag-lifeline","13":"tag-machine","14":"tag-middle","15":"tag-offers","16":"tag-russia","17":"tag-russias","18":"tag-war"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45911\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/45912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}