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March 3, 2026<\/p>\n
2 min read<\/p>\n
Add Us On Google<\/span>Add SciAm<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Will El Ni\u00f1o return in 2026? Here\u2019s what we know so far<\/p>\n Weather events like El Ni\u00f1o can be notoriously hard to predict, but this year could mark its return<\/p>\n By Jackie Flynn Mogensen edited by Claire Cameron<\/span><\/p>\n Satellite sea surface temperature departure in the Pacific Ocean for the month of October 2015, where darker orange-red colors are above normal temperatures and are indicative of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n It\u2019s been two years since El Ni\u00f1o wreaked havoc across the globe. The climate pattern, which takes place due to changes in the Pacific Ocean, drove heavy rainfall along the western U.S. and drought in Southeast Asia, and brought with it some of the highest global temperatures ever recorded. And this year, United Nations forecasters predict the climate phenomenon could return\u2014but, they caution, it\u2019s still too early to tell for certain.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s power rests in a combination of ocean temperatures and wind. During El Ni\u00f1o events, warm ocean water moves from the western Pacific toward North and South America. The changes in ocean temperatures can set off a string of weather impacts across the globe\u2014for instance, it can mean heavy rains in the southern US, while regions on the other side of the Pacific tend to dry out. It\u2019s opposite, La Ni\u00f1a, tends to cause cold, wet weather in the northern U.S., a more active Atlantic hurricane season, and more rainfall in parts of Asia and Australia.<\/p>\n These patterns tend to oscillate\u2014the last La Ni\u00f1a is ongoing, but weak. And on Tuesday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced there is a moderate chance that El Ni\u00f1o will return in 2026.<\/p>\n If you’re enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.<\/p>\n According to the WMO, chances of El Ni\u00f1o are around 40 percent between May and July this year. The predictions are preliminary and could change. Predicting whether this will be an El Ni\u00f1o year so far in advance is tricky, in part because global climate patters are complicated, and because it\u2019s still early.<\/p>\n The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently puts the chances of an El Ni\u00f1o forming at about 50 to 60 percent for the late summer, although those predictions are also subject to change.<\/p>\n NOAA classifies El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a events in part by looking at average temperatures in a patch of the Pacific Ocean: If the temperatures exceed 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal for an extended period, those are El Ni\u00f1o conditions. If they drop 0.5 degrees Celsius below normal, it\u2019s La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n But even with all the uncertainty, an early heads up that El Ni\u00f1o is coming can be valuable to countries so that they can prepare for the weather that comes with it. The predictions are intended to manage disaster risk\u2014and ultimately, save lives, said Celeste Saulo, the WMO\u2019s secretary-general, in a statement.<\/p>\n \u201cSeasonal forecasts for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management,\u201d said Saulo.<\/p>\n If you enjoyed this article, I\u2019d like to ask for your support. Scientific American<\/span> has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history.<\/p>\n I\u2019ve been a Scientific American<\/span> subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm <\/span>always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too.<\/p>\n If you subscribe to Scientific American<\/span>, you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized.<\/p>\n In return, you get essential news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can’t-miss newsletters, must-watch videos, challenging games, and the science world’s best writing and reporting. You can even gift someone a subscription.<\/p>\n There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you\u2019ll support us in that mission.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" March 3, 2026 2 min read Add Us On GoogleAdd SciAm Will El Ni\u00f1o return in 2026? Here\u2019s what we know so far Weather events like El Ni\u00f1o can be notoriously hard to predict, but this year could mark its return By Jackie Flynn Mogensen edited by Claire Cameron Satellite sea surface temperature departure in<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[613,15663,1007],"class_list":{"0":"post-45701","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-science","8":"tag-heres","9":"tag-nino","10":"tag-return"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45701\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/45702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}On supporting science journalism<\/h2>\n
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