UK borrowing costs are pushing higher, as pressure continues to mount on Keir Starmer.<\/strong><\/p>\nThe yield, or interest rate, on 10-year government bonds is now up 7 basis points (0.07 percentage points) to 4.59%, as gilt prices continue to drop.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s close to the two and a half-month high touched last week.<\/p>\n
30-year bond yields are now up almost 8 basis points to 5.41%. That\u2019s the highest level since mid-November, just before Rachel Reeves\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n
Yields have pushed higher following news that Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, is to call on Keir Starmer to stand down as prime minister and Labour leader.<\/p>\n
Share<\/p>\n
The yen is continuing to strengthen against a generally weaker US dollar.<\/strong><\/p>\nJapan\u2019s currency is now up 0.7% at \u00a5156.1 to the US dollar, up from \u00a5157.2 on Friday night.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s despite predictions that Japan\u2019s fiscal policy will now become more looser and more expansionary.<\/p>\n
Daniele Antonucci,<\/strong> chief investment officer at Quintet Private Bank, <\/strong>explains:<\/strong><\/p>\nJapan\u2019s snap election delivered one of the largest parliamentary majorities in decades, sharply reducing near-term political uncertainty.<\/p>\n
The scale of the mandate increases the likelihood that fiscal policy will become more expansionary over the coming quarters.<\/p>\n
Unlike past stimulus episodes, the focus is likely to be targeted, with spending aimed at strategic sectors such as AI, semiconductors and defence.<\/p>\n
That raises the probability of higher public investment and stronger incentives for private-sector capital expenditure.<\/p>\n
Japanese equities have reacted positively, particularly in technology, machinery and defence-linked names.<\/p>\n
This adds to Japan\u2019s relative equity outperformance we\u2019ve seen over the past few months though at the same time valuations have now become more demanding.<\/p>\n
At the same time, expectations of looser fiscal policy are putting renewed downward pressure on the yen.<\/p>\n
Share<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s impressiver near-4% jump on the Japanese stock market follows some strong gains in recent months, points out Russ Mould<\/strong>, investment director at AJ Bell<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\u201cJapanese shares rallied after Sanae Takaichi\u2019s landslide election win. Investors are excited at the prospect of economic stimulus measures and the prime minister\u2019s desire to drive corporate investment in the tech space.<\/p>\n
\u201cJapan\u2019s Nikkei 225 has risen 68% since April 2025 amid a weaker yen, which makes the country\u2019s exports more competitive from a price perspective, and a shift in the political backdrop. That\u2019s an unusually large movement for an equity index in such a short period.<\/p>\n
Share<\/p>\n
Eurozone upturn begins as investor confidence rises<\/h2>\n
Encouraging news from the eurozone, where investor confidence has risen.<\/strong><\/p>\nThe Sentix index measuring investor morale in the euro zone, released this morning, rose for the third month running to its highest level since July 2025.<\/p>\n
The index rose to 4.2 points in February from -1.8 the month before, beating forecasts by analysts polled by Reuters for a reading of 0.0.<\/p>\n
Sentix says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe recession in the euro zone appears to have come to an end and an upturn seems to have begun.\u201d<\/p>\n
ShareMark Sweney<\/span><\/p>\nA top Warner Bros Discovery executive has said he is \u201cconfident\u201d that Netflix will keep its HBO Max streaming service, home to hit content such as Game of Thrones and Succession, despite uncertainty about the future ownership of the US film and TV giant.<\/strong><\/p>\nJB Perrette<\/strong>, who runs WBD\u2019s global streaming and games operations, is forging ahead with the long-awaited launch of HBO Max in the UK & Ireland on 26th March as Netflix and Paramount Skydance continue to battle for control of WBD.<\/p>\n\u201cThe one thing that is very clear in public statements from Ted [Sarandos] and Greg [Peters, co-chief executives of Netflix] – and this is 15 to 20 years in the making – they have talked about HBO many years ago as \u2018could they get to be HBO before HBO became them\u2019,\u201d he said, speaking at the launch event for HBO Max UK&I.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey have an enormous amount of respect and appreciation for the HBO brand in exactly the way we are defining it. It is distinct, premium, must-watch, different from mass volume [models].\u201d<\/p>\n
WBD\u2019s board of directors has unanimously backed Netflix\u2019s $82.7bn (\u00a361.5bn) all-cash deal, while rival Paramount is attempting to derail the agreement with a $108.4bn takeover offer that it is trying to win support for directly from shareholders.<\/p>\n
In the US, critics of the Netflix deal argue that buying HBO Max, which has around 60 million US subscribers, would give it too much power.<\/p>\n
However, in a number of key markets, notably the major European countries where WBD had to unwind longstanding HBO deals with Sky, the HBO Max streaming service has only just launched.<\/p>\n
The UK – where the service will include TNT Sports content such as Premier League and Champions League football migrated from WBD\u2019s Discovery+ app – is the last major world market to see the launch of HBO Max.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese rollouts where someone could say \u2018why are you rolling out, you are selling the company?\u2019,\u201d said Perette<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\u201cThe reality is Netflix want the brand to be vibrant, dynamic, to be stronger and to be visible. I can\u2019t say exactly what they want to do with it. But I am confident\u2026 having it in this market and actually having a more broad following, not just an industry following which is where it has been residing in Sky, is very helpful to their strategic ambitions as opposed to something that is contradictory to that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Perette said that by the end of March, when the service has launched in the UK & Ireland, HBO Max will have been live in three of the big five European markets for less than 90 days.<\/p>\n
In the UK the cheapest tier, Basic with Ads, will cost \u00a34.99. However, WBD expects the most popular tier to be its \u00a35.99 monthly subscription, Standard with Ads, which includes recent movies from Warner Bros.<\/p>\n
Share<\/p>\n
Bloomberg have spotted that hedge funds are betting on more pound weakness as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer\u2019s future hangs in the balance.<\/strong><\/p>\nThey say:<\/p>\n
Trading volume of euro-sterling options was the most elevated since 2019 on Feb. 5, according to data from The Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. The volume of call options, which gain if sterling weakens versus the euro, was 50% larger than that of put options, which increase in value if the pound rises.<\/p>\n
Hedge fund flows into \u201ceuro-pound remained one\u2011way, with heavy topside buying,\u201d said Thomas Bureau, global head of FX option trading at Societe Generale, referring to demand for call options following the market moves on Feb. 5.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe pound has traded with EM\u2011style volatility, driven by global dollar strength and hypersensitivity to geopolitical headlines.\u201d<\/p>\n
Share<\/p>\n
The weakness in the UK bond markets today is arguably more to do with the Japanese election than Keir Starmer\u2019s shaky-looking grip on power.<\/strong><\/p>\nThat\u2019s because Sanae Takaichi is expected to turn to the bond markets to fund a new stimulus programme.<\/p>\n
Economist Julian<\/strong> Jessop<\/strong>, a fellow at the free-market Institute<\/strong> for<\/strong> Economic<\/strong> Analysis<\/strong> (not a natural Starmer ally) explains on X:<\/p>\nBig LDP win in Japan\u2019s elections already pushing up global yields in anticipation of even more borrowing).<\/p>\n
Could be another rocky morning in the gilt market today, but this is more about Sanae Takaichi than Morgan McSweeney!<\/p>\n
(Big LDP win in Japan’s elections already pushing up global yields in anticipation of even more borrowing)<\/p>\n
\u2014 Julian Jessop (@julianHjessop) February 9, 2026<\/a><\/p>\nShare<\/p>\n
Ooh, UK bond prices just fell a little more, as news broke that Keir Starmer\u2019s director of communications Tim Allan has resigned.<\/strong><\/p>\nThat has pushed up the yield (or interest rate) on 10 and 30-year bond yields by four basis points (0.04 percentage points) \u2013 still a small move\u2026.<\/p>\n
Share<\/p>\n
“No panic on financial markets about the stability of the UK government” (yet….)<\/h2>\n
There\u2019s some excitable reporting out there this morning about the market reaction to Keir Starmer\u2019s shaky grip on 10 Downing Street.<\/strong><\/p>\nTo reiterate, UK government borrowing costs are slightly<\/strong> higher, and the pound is marginally<\/strong> lower against the US dollar, and down about 0.4% against the euro (a more meaningful move, see earlier post).<\/p>\nBut a two-basis point (0.02 percentage point) rise in UK gilt yields suggests investors are basically shrugging at the turmoil in Westminster.<\/p>\n
Russ Mould,<\/strong> investment director at AJ Bell<\/strong>, says:<\/p>\n\u201cPolitics were front of mind for investors in the UK after the resignation of chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney.<\/p>\n
Movement among government bonds and the currency suggests there is no panic on financial markets about the stability of the UK government.\u201d<\/p>\n
Share<\/p>\n
Updated at\u00a005.45 EST<\/p>\n
Back to Japan\u2026. and Neil<\/strong> Newman<\/strong>, managing director and head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, has summed up the importance of Sanae<\/strong> Takaichi\u2019s<\/strong> achievement in winning an absolute majority in Tokyo\u2019s lower house:<\/p>\n\u201cOverall, as the LDP has gone from a very weak government that really couldn\u2019t do anything to an extremely strong government now with the supermajority of the lower house, they really could call the shots.\u201d<\/p>\n
Share<\/p>\n
Greggs’ shares hit by fears weight-loss jabs could hit spending<\/h2>\n
UK bakery chain Greggs is under pressure, as analysts warn that the boom in weight-loss products could hit demand for its pasties, pies and sausage rolls.<\/strong><\/p>\nStockbroker Jefferies<\/strong> suggested last weekend that drugs such as Mounjaro and Wegovy may create an \u201cenduring challenge\u201d for Greggs<\/strong> and hamper growth (The Times have the story here).<\/p>\nGreggs<\/strong> are the top faller on the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized companies, down 4.2% this morning a 16.09p, down 72p.<\/p>\nVictoria Scholar, <\/strong>head of investment at interactive investor<\/strong>, says:<\/p>\nGreggs is suffering today, falling sharply after Jefferies cut the stock from a buy to a hold. The broker said that weight loss drugs like Mounjaro could create an \u2018enduring challenge\u2019 for the company.<\/p>\n
Share<\/p>\n
Updated at\u00a004.59 EST<\/p>\n
InPost shares jump after takeover by FedEx and private equity-led consortium<\/h2>\n
Shares in parcel locker group InPost have surged by 13.5% after a consortium led by FedEx Corporation and private equity firm Advent has agreed to buy the company for \u20ac7.8bn (\u00a36.8 billion).<\/strong><\/p>\nThe bidders have offered \u20ac15.60 a share for Polish-headquartered InPost<\/strong>, and have plans to expand further across the UK and Europe.<\/p>\nIn the UK, the group is looking to more than double the locker points to 30,000 from 14,000 currently, while it also has 5,500 pick-up and drop-off points.<\/p>\n
InPost\u2019s<\/strong> shares have quickly jumped over the \u20ac15 mark.<\/p>\nShare<\/p>\n
European stock markets are also making a positive start to the new week.<\/strong><\/p>\nThe pan-European Stoxx<\/strong> 600<\/strong> index has gained 0.27%, as last week\u2019s fears over the impact of AI on software and data companies appear to ease off.<\/p>\nShare<\/p>\n
Updated at\u00a004.34 EST<\/p>\n
Japan\u2019s election result is likely to encourage more selling of the yen, predicts Lee Hardman, currency expert at MUFG bank.<\/strong><\/p>\nHardman <\/strong>told clients this morning:<\/p>\nYen weakness following the election result has been constrained by the heightened risk of intervention as USD\/JPY moves back into the high 150.00s. Japan\u2019s top currency official Atsushi Mimura warned that they are watching market moves with a high sense of urgency.<\/p>\n
It followed comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama who said after the election victory that she will communicate with financial markets on Monday if needed. She reiterated that \u201cJapan and the Us have signed a memorandum of understanding, which stated that we can take decisive measures against rapid movements out of line with fundamentals. That certainly includes intervention\u201d.<\/p>\n
The ongoing threat of intervention has helped to dampen further yen selling after the lower house election although it remains vulnerable to further weakness if market participants remain concerned over policy direction going forward under Prime Minister Takaichi.<\/p>\n
Share<\/p>\n
Updated at\u00a004.05 EST<\/p>\n
NatWest shares fall after buying Evelyn Partners<\/h2>\n
Shares in banking group NatWest have dropped over 5% after it agreed to buy Evelyn Partners, one of the UK\u2019s biggest wealth managers.<\/strong><\/p>\nNatWest<\/strong> will pay \u00a32.7bn for Evelyn<\/strong> Partners<\/strong>, a move which will boost its wealth management arm<\/p>\nEvelyn<\/strong> Partners<\/strong>, formerly known as Tilney Smith & Williamson, controls about \u00a369bn of client assets and offers financial planning and wealth management across the UK and Ireland.<\/p>\nThe company traces its roots back to 1836 when Thomas Tilney created his eponymous stock brokerage in the City of London. Tilney was bought by Permira in 2014, before acquiring the 145-year-old Glasgow-based investment company Smith & Williamson in 2019, and rebranding to its current name three years later, my colleague Alex Daniel reports<\/em>.<\/p>\nShare<\/p>\n
Updated at\u00a004.19 EST<\/p>\n