\n<\/p>\n
Weather agencies and climate scientists have pointed to the possibility of an El Ni\u00f1o forming in the Pacific Ocean later this year \u2013 a phenomenon that could push global temperatures to all-time record highs in 2027.<\/p>\n
Both the US government\u2019s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia\u2019s Bureau of Meteorology have said some climate models are forecasting an El Ni\u00f1o but both cautioned those results came with uncertainties.<\/p>\n
Experts told the Guardian it was too early to be confident, but there were signals in the spread of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that suggested an El Ni\u00f1o could form in 2026.<\/p>\n
The cycle of ocean temperatures in the Pacific \u2013 known as the El Ni\u00f1o southern oscillation (ENSO) \u2013 is linked with extreme climate events around the world.<\/p>\n
When warmer-than-average waters gather in the east of the equatorial Pacific and extend to the coast of the American continent, this is known as an El Ni\u00f1o and tends to give global temperatures a boost and, in Australia, can be linked to drier and hotter conditions.<\/p>\n
The latest southern hemisphere outlook from Australia\u2019s bureau said this week: \u201cSome models suggest the possibility of El Ni\u00f1o development from June.\u201d The bureau cautioned this was a \u201cvery long lead time\u201d for predicting an El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
NOAA has also said \u201cthere are growing chances of El Ni\u00f1o\u201d but also pointed to uncertainty in the models.<\/p>\n
Dr Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist at Monash University and the former head of long-range forecasts at the bureau, said: \u201cWe have a lot of warm water stored up in the western tropical Pacific. Typically when the trade winds ease that will slosh back to the east and warm up the areas off South America.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe models are going for that to happen over [the Australian] autumn, which is fairly much what you\u2019d expect.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said the \u201cprecursors are there\u201d for an El Ni\u00f1o but it was too early to tell if the phenomenon would develop.<\/p>\n
Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto, an ENSO expert at the University of New South Wales, said a current La Ni\u00f1a \u2013 where warmer waters are closer to Australia \u2013 was coming to an end, and forecasting beyond that was difficult.<\/p>\n
She said the chances of an El Ni\u00f1o developing, or ENSO being neutral, in June to August was currently about 50\/50 or \u201clike tossing a coin\u201d.<\/p>\n
The past three years have each been in the top three warmest years on record for the planet.<\/p>\n
Dr Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at the US-based independent Berkeley Earth research group, said an El Ni\u00f1o that formed in mid-2023 and lasted until around April 2024 had likely added about 0.12C to global temperatures in 2024.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf El Ni\u00f1o develops later this year it will likely peak around November-January and primarily impact 2027 global surface temperatures, rather than 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is why I have predicted that 2027 will likely set a new record [for global temperature] if a moderate to strong El Ni\u00f1o event ends up developing.\u201d<\/p>\n
Watkins agreed if an El Ni\u00f1o did develop it would more strongly impact global temperatures in 2027.<\/p>\n
\u201cI would be hesitant to bet against a hottest year on record,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
But he said global heating caused mostly by the burning of fossil fuels was now \u201cso strong\u201d that it was \u201csimply overtaking year-to-year variability in terms of air temperature\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t think we are surprised by anything any more,\u201d he said. \u201cYou might not need a strong El Ni\u00f1o to get these warmer temperatures.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Weather agencies and climate scientists have pointed to the possibility of an El Ni\u00f1o forming in the Pacific Ocean later this year \u2013 a phenomenon that could push global temperatures to all-time record highs in 2027. Both the US government\u2019s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia\u2019s Bureau of Meteorology have said some climate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43972,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"tags":[2001,11144,1123,14773,15663,11002,22909,4634,1092,1099,6493,2211],"class_list":{"0":"post-43971","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-chance","9":"tag-forming","10":"tag-global","11":"tag-highs","12":"tag-nino","13":"tag-ocean","14":"tag-oscillation","15":"tag-pacific","16":"tag-push","17":"tag-record","18":"tag-southern","19":"tag-temperatures"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43971","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43971"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43971\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/43972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43971"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43971"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43971"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}