The New York Times<\/span><\/p>\nToday, the Cook Political Report rates just 18 seats as tossup races \u2014 four held by Democrats and 14 by Republicans. But the map is evolving and Cook recently shifted 18 House races in Democrats\u2019 direction, a sign of the party\u2019s momentum and Mr. Trump\u2019s struggles.<\/p>\n
Of the House\u2019s 435 seats, the vast majority, 375, are rated as \u201csolid\u201d for one party or the other \u2014 meaning they are essentially noncompetitive. Another two dozen races are seen as likely to favor one party, while 18 are in the more competitive \u201clean\u201d category.<\/p>\n
The magic number for a House majority is 218 seats.<\/p>\n
To get there, Democrats would need to hold all of their solid and likely seats, sweep the 13 seats that lean toward their party and win at least seven of the 18 tossups, according to Cook\u2019s ratings.<\/p>\n
The initial 2026 House battlegrounds do not span the whole nation. The South and the Mountain West are mostly afterthoughts, though Democrats hope some strong candidates in those places could make more seats viable.<\/p>\n
Other factors are at play for House control, too:<\/p>\n
Redrawn maps scramble the midterm forecast<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Possible change<\/p>\n
Change<\/p>\n
Actions taken to redistrict<\/p>\n
Discussed but less likely<\/p>\n
Many states have redrawn their maps after Mr. Trump set off a nationwide gerrymandering fight. Typically, House districts are drawn once a decade, after the census. But Mr. Trump, wanting to defend his party\u2019s slim House majority, sought an edge by pressing for so-called mid-decade redistricting in red states.<\/p>\n
He has already pushed Texas, Missouri and North Carolina to draw new maps, carving out as many as seven more Republican districts. Ohio had to redraw its map by law, and its new lines favor Republicans more, but to a lesser degree than some Democrats had feared. In Indiana, Republicans stunningly rejected Mr. Trump\u2019s effort.<\/p>\n
In response to Texas\u2019 move, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California persuaded his state\u2019s voters to approve a plan to carve out five Democratic seats and shore up vulnerable House Democrats.<\/p>\n
More new maps could be coming: Democrats are pushing to redraw lines in Virginia and possibly New York, and Republicans are considering new lines in Florida. Other states like Maryland and Nebraska have had discussions about redistricting but have made limited progress.<\/p>\n
There is another X-factor: The Supreme Court is considering a case that could sharply weaken Voting Rights Act protections for districts drawn to purposefully help voters of color elect candidates. Such a decision could set off another round of redistricting and eliminate a range of Democratic seats in the South.<\/p>\n
And as all of this is happening, many lawmakers in both parties are heading for the exits.<\/p>\n
A wave of retirements concentrated in solid districts<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
At least 49 districts will not have an incumbent running in the midterms.<\/p>\n
Seat held by a<\/span> \u2022<\/span>Democrat<\/span> \u2022<\/span>Republican<\/span><\/p>\n21 Solid\/likely Dem.<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n25 Solid\/likely Rep.<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\n\u2022<\/span><\/p>\nThe Congress that will be sworn in next year will look very different, regardless of which party controls each chamber. More than 10 percent of lawmakers in the House have already announced they won\u2019t be running for re-election.<\/p>\n
But those retirements \u2014 including those who are forgoing re-election to seek higher office \u2014 are heavily concentrated in safe seats.<\/p>\n
The two clearest exceptions are Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, a Republican in a seat that Mr. Trump lost, and Representative Jared Golden of Maine, who had held the most pro-Trump seat of any Democrat. Both seats are now seen as more likely to flip.<\/p>\n
Two other Republicans who decided to run for governor of their states, Representative John James in Michigan and Representative David Schweikert in Arizona, have opened up competitive seats, as well.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The battle for control of the House of Representatives this fall will be decided by a small fraction of the chamber\u2019s seats. Republicans are clinging to a five-seat edge, the narrowest margin in modern times. The nation\u2019s political climate is volatile, and much can change between now and November. But at the start of the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":42070,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[671,10739,8093,22266,234,1259],"class_list":{"0":"post-42069","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-politics","8":"tag-house","9":"tag-midterms","10":"tag-redistricting","11":"tag-retirements","12":"tag-shape","13":"tag-win"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42069\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/42070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}