\n<\/p>\n
A large majority of UK voters believe immigration is increasing despite sharp falls in the number of people entering the UK, according to exclusive polling shared with the Guardian.<\/p>\n
Voters also say they have no confidence in the government\u2019s ability to control the UK\u2019s borders, according to the poll by More in Common. The results will come as a blow to Keir Starmer\u2019s administration, which has taken an increasingly hardline stance on immigration in recent months.<\/p>\n
Net migration to the UK fell by more than two-thirds to a post-pandemic low in the year ending June 2025, but 67% of the people polled thought it had increased. Among Reform voters, four in five thought immigration had grown, and more than three in five (63%) believed it had \u201cincreased significantly\u201d.<\/p>\n
The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, promised \u201cthe most substantial reform to the UK\u2019s asylum system in a generation\u201d in November, and proposed a series of hardline policies to make the UK less attractive to migrants and refugees.<\/p>\n
Under new plans those with refugee status could wait 20 years to become British citizens, asylum claimants could have their assets confiscated, family reunions could be curbed, and refugees returned if conditions improved in their home countries.<\/p>\n
But despite the measures, which some Labour MPs fiercely oppose, confidence in the government on immigration has plummeted. Three-quarters (74%) of voters said they had little or no confidence in the government on the issue, up from 70% in May last year. Only 18% of voters had confidence, down three percentage points. The biggest drop in confidence came from those who backed Labour in 2024, where confidence dropped by 17%.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Labour government is facing a growing credibility gap on migration \u2026 That tells us that numbers alone are not enough,\u201d said More in Common\u2019s executive director, Luke Tryl. \u201cUntil that credibility gap closes, Labour\u2019s migration migraine will persist.\u201d<\/p>\n
The highly visible issue of small boats remains critical to public perception of migration, he said. According to the polling, 79% of voters wanted the government\u2019s focus to be on stopping the vessels, with only one in 10 believing that reducing legal net immigration should be its top priority.<\/p>\n
In the year ending June 2025, 43,000 people arrived on small boats, up 38% on the previous year but fewer than the 46,000 peak in 2022. Those arriving on small boats make up only a tiny proportion of the overall number of people coming to the UK \u2013 less than 5% in 2025, according to Guardian analysis.<\/p>\n
The polling revealed a persistent and \u201cbroad public cynicism\u201d around migration, but a lag in perception could result in voter opinion changing in the coming months, said Marley Morris, from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). \u201cLabour have been doing a lot to emphasise a tough line on migration because they want to try to challenge that perception, but it\u2019s quite ingrained,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
In further disheartening news for the government, when given accurate migration figures fewer than one in five credit the government for the decline, with a similar number attributing the drop to the previous Conservative government.<\/p>\n
Net migration to the UK peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but fell by more than two-thirds to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).<\/p>\n
Visa applications to the UK also fell sharply in 2025. Monthly migration statistics published on Thursday showed skilled worker applications were down by 36% and health and care applications down by 51%.<\/p>\n
Migration minister Mike Tapp said it was evidence that Labour\u2019s plans to back British workers over overseas workers and \u201crestore order to the broken immigration system we inherited is paying off\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cNet migration is at its lowest level in half a decade, and has already fallen by more than two-thirds under this government after it was allowed to explode to nearly one million in recent years,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Kim Johnson, the Labour MP for Liverpool Riverside, said the polling revealed the \u201ccost of mimicking Reform\u201d \u2013 a rise in racism and a steep decline in work visas, which risked leaving the health and social care sectors in crisis.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe government must present a positive alternative vision, one that supports the rights and dignity of those who moved to Britain to work and build homes and families,\u201d she said. \u201cOtherwise we will continue to see the impact of the divisive rhetoric, including at the ballot box, where such narratives are fuelling \u2013 not muting \u2013 the Reform vote.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A large majority of UK voters believe immigration is increasing despite sharp falls in the number of people entering the UK, according to exclusive polling shared with the Guardian. Voters also say they have no confidence in the government\u2019s ability to control the UK\u2019s borders, according to the poll by More in Common. The results<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41254,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[2917,189,2081,3024,1999,2849,2980,12094],"class_list":{"0":"post-41253","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-politics","8":"tag-asylum","9":"tag-finds","10":"tag-immigration","11":"tag-poll","12":"tag-rising","13":"tag-twothirds","14":"tag-voters","15":"tag-wrongly"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41253","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41253"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41253\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/41254"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41253"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41253"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41253"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}