\n<\/p>\n
A wave of protests started by shopkeepers swept through Tehran in December. Iranians have had such a terrible year\u2014facing such a decline in living standards and such a sense of political impasse\u2014that no one was terribly surprised when demonstrations filled the streets.<\/p>\n
I asked one Iranian student why she had taken part in the street protests. \u201cYeah, why should we protest?\u201d she replied sarcastically. \u201cAfter all, we have it so good!\u201d<\/p>\n
The immediate spark for the protests was a sharp decline in the value of the Iranian currency. At one point last week, a U.S. dollar traded for almost 1.5 million rials, having lost more than half its value in a year. As recently as 2021, a dollar cost around 250,000 rials and, only a decade ago, around 30,000. This continuous decline has slashed savings, destroyed the Iranian middle class, and inflicted real suffering on the working classes. The protests began on Sunday with merchants who rely on importing electrical goods and find that very few can now afford them. But they\u2019ve quickly mushroomed\u2014as did previous rounds did in 2017, 2019, and 2022\u2014spreading to cities in provinces such as Hamedan, Isfahan, and Lorestan, and drawing in students, pensioners, and members of Gen Z.<\/p>\n
Like previous waves of demonstrations, the protests have quickly acquired a political character. Protesters have chanted, \u201cDeath to the dictator,\u201d targeting the octogenarian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has held the top post since 1989 with little accountability. As a statement read out by students at Tehran\u2019s Beheshti University put it: \u201cThis criminal system has taken our future hostage for 47 years. It won\u2019t be changed with reform or with false promises.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected with promises of good governance last year, has overseen electricity and water cuts while failing to realize signature promises such as lifting restrictions of the internet. Wanting to show he is cut from a different cloth than his hard-line predecessor, Pezeshkian quickly promised to meet with representatives of protesters. His spokesperson affirmed \u201cthe constitutional right of peaceful protest\u201d for Iranians.<\/p>\n
But Pezeshkian doesn\u2019t control the security forces, so these pronouncements ring hollow. Dozens of protesters have already been arrested, including Sarira Karimi, head of a student union chapter at the University of Tehran. (Karimi was released on Wednesday.) In the small cities of Kuhdasht and Fasa, security forces shot at protesters. According to local officials, a member of the security forces was killed in Kuhdasht. Protesters also clashed with police in Hamedan and Najafabad.<\/p>\n
On Tuesday, Pezeshkian met with representatives of some guilds and merchant unions and promised to improve the economy. After almost 18 months in office, he finally dismissed Mohammadreza Farzin, the unpopular central-bank governor appointed by his hard-line predecessor. Farzin\u2019s successor, Abdolnasser Hemmati, a pro-reform economist and Pezeshkian\u2019s former finance minister, has promised economic stability.<\/p>\n
But Hemmati faces a tall order. He is likely to slash interest rates (the official rate currently stands at 40 percent) and to pursue banking and currency-exchange reform. But these are hardly panaceas for Iran\u2019s deeply beleaguered economy, which suffers from international isolation, Western-imposed sanctions, and domestic mismanagement by a regime that has long failed to prioritize its people\u2019s welfare.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s current monthly minimum wage, of around 104 million rials, barely buys a gram of 18-karat gold (often used as a measure of real value). Nurses and teachers earn around 150 to 250 million rials a month while a semi-decent apartment in Tehran rents for around 200 million. Many professionals supplement their income by moonlighting as ride-share drivers or taking other odd jobs. Thousands have emigrated to seek a better life elsewhere.<\/p>\n
To make things worse, Iranians live in the fear of another round of military strikes by Israel or the United States. \u201cYou can\u2019t plan even for two weeks in this country,\u201d a young man who took part in the protests told me. \u201cWithout stability, there is no prospect for growth or welfare. We live day by day.\u201d<\/p>\n
To change that, the regime would need to come to an agreement with the Trump administration that lifts the sanctions or at least keeps Iran safe from war. But Khamenei\u2019s harsh ideological stance against Israel and the U.S. makes that hard to achieve. On Tuesday, protesters in Tehran used a classic protest chant: \u201cNeither Gaza, nor Lebanon, I give my life for Iran.\u201d The slogan, popular since 2009, reflects opposition to Iran\u2019s backing for militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The protesters believe that military adventurism has drained Iranian resources and helped put the country at odds with both the West and its Arab neighbors. In other words, Iranians link their economic malaise to their regime\u2019s foreign policy.<\/p>\n
Can the protesters prevail against the Islamic Republic?<\/p>\n
Every time Iranians come out to the streets, many around the world express this wish. Prominent American and Israeli politicians have already done so in the past few days. But rattled as the regime might be, it has seen mass protests off repeatedly in recent years.<\/p>\n
Opponents of the Islamic Republic remain hopelessly disorganized and disunited. Some protesters have chanted slogans in favor of Reza Pahlavi, Iran\u2019s exiled crown prince. But Pahlavi remains a divisive figure among anti-regime Iranians. Many reject his claim to leadership. Pahlavi\u2019s supporters and top advisers routinely criticize popular domestic dissidents including the Nobel Peace laureate Narges Mohammadi, actress Taraneh Alidoosti, and rapper Toumaj Salehi. Earlier this month, Mohammadi was physically attacked by pro-Pahlavi protesters in the northeastern city of Mashhad.<\/p>\n
Regardless of their politics, all opposition factions have failed to build powerful organizations or lasting networks that could direct the protests. Without such direction, the current protests are likely to lose momentum and fizzle out, just like previous rounds. Even if they were to last, it is far likelier that figures from inside the regime\u2019s ranks would take the initiative and wrest power from Khamenei, than that the protesters would succeed in bringing about a change to the regime\u2019s basic structures.<\/p>\n
\u201cI am happy from the bottom of my heart to see others in the streets,\u201d a young woman who took part in protests on Wednesday told me. \u201cBut I also know that we are economically fucked and things won\u2019t get better anytime soon. We also have no easy way of winning against these bastards. It is hard to be hopeful.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even as Iranians show incredible bravery by coming out against their thuggish regime, a winning strategy continues to be elusive.<\/p>\n