{"id":38236,"date":"2025-12-19T12:31:40","date_gmt":"2025-12-19T12:31:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/?p=38236"},"modified":"2025-12-19T12:31:40","modified_gmt":"2025-12-19T12:31:40","slug":"takeaways-from-an-eventful-2025-election-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/?p=38236","title":{"rendered":"Takeaways from an eventful 2025 election cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n<\/p>\n

Is there such a thing as an \u201coff year\u201d for U.S. elections? The elections in 2025 were not nearly as all-encompassing as last year\u2019s presidential race, nor as chaotic as what is expected from next year\u2019s midterms. But hundreds of elections were held in dozens of states, including local contests, mayoral races, special congressional elections and two highly anticipated governor\u2019s races.<\/p>\n

Many of the elections were seen as early tests of how lasting President Trump\u2019s 2024 gains might be and as a preview of what might happen in 2026.<\/p>\n

Here are five takeaways from the 2025 election cycle.<\/p>\n

In Elections Seen as Referendums on Trump, Democrats Won Big<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Democrats did well in nearly all of this year\u2019s elections, continuing a pattern that has played out across off-year elections for the last two decades: The party that wins the White House routinely loses ground in the next round of elections.<\/p>\n

Virginia and New Jersey have historically swung away from the president\u2019s party in governor\u2019s races<\/h3>\n

The change in the final margin from the presidential election to the next election for governor<\/p>\n

Sources: Virginia Department of Elections, N.J. Division of Elections, Dave Leip\u2019s Atlas of U.S. Elections.<\/span> The New York Times<\/span><\/p>\n

Elections in these years are often viewed as referendums on the president\u2019s performance. And Mr. Trump\u2019s approval ratings, after months of holding steady, took a dip in November.<\/p>\n

A notable shift came in New Jersey, where the majority-Hispanic townships that swung toward Mr. Trump in 2024 swung back to Democrats in the 2025 governor\u2019s race. That contributed significantly to the victory of Representative Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate, over Jack Ciattarelli, the Trump-backed Republican.<\/p>\n

New Jersey\u2019s majority-Hispanic towns snapped back left in 2025<\/h3>\n

Each line is a township whose width is sized to the number of votes cast in 2025<\/p>\n

Note: Includes townships where more than 500 votes were cast in 2025.<\/span> Sources: N.J. county clerks, N.J. Division of Elections, U.S. Census Bureau.<\/span> The New York Times<\/span><\/p>\n

The leftward swing was viewed by many political commentators as a reaction to Mr. Trump. If that is the case, it remains to be seen how much of it will carry over into 2026.<\/p>\n

Progressive and Moderate Democrats Are Both Claiming Victories<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Democratic strategists continue to debate whether the party should embrace progressive candidates or more moderate ones. And in 2025, the election results had both sides feeling emboldened.<\/p>\n

In New York City, Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who struggled to garner support from the Democratic Party, defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by nine points. A similar story played out in Jersey City, where James Solomon, a progressive, crushed former Gov. James McGreevey of New Jersey in a mayoral runoff. Progressives also prevailed in cities like Detroit and Seattle.<\/p>\n

Centrist Democrats, meanwhile, came away with arguably the two biggest wins of the year against Trump-endorsed Republicans. Abigail Spanberger and Ms. Sherrill, both Democrats, outperformed their polling estimates and decisively won the high-profile governor\u2019s races in Virginia and New Jersey.<\/p>\n

The debate will continue among Democrats as several 2026 primaries have prominent progressive and moderate candidates going head to head.<\/p>\n

In Texas, Representative Jasmine Crockett, a progressive, entered the primary race for a U.S. Senate seat against the more moderate James Talarico. A similar situation has developed in Maine, where Graham Platner has pitched himself as a more progressive alternative to Janet Mills in the party\u2019s attempt to unseat Senator Susan Collins, a Republican. Other progressives, like Julie Gonzales in Colorado and Brad Lander in New York, are challenging incumbent Democrats in primary races.<\/p>\n

A Record 14 Women Will Serve as Governors in 2026<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Virginians elected Ms. Spanberger as their first female governor. In New Jersey, Ms. Sherrill became the second woman to secure the position. Both women significantly outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris\u2019s margins from the 2024 presidential race, improving on her results by almost 10 points.<\/p>\n

Female candidates also did well down the ballot. Eileen Higgins will be the first female mayor in Miami after defeating Emilio Gonz\u00e1lez, who had the support of Mr. Trump. And, in Seattle, Katie Wilson defeated the incumbent mayor, Bruce Harrell.<\/p>\n

States that will have female governors in 2026<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n

Source: Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.<\/span> The New York Times<\/span><\/p>\n

Come 2026, a record 14 women \u2014 10 Democrats and four Republicans \u2014 will serve as governors, with six of them expected to run for re-election next year. (More than a dozen states have yet to elect a female governor.)<\/p>\n

In New York, it is likely that both candidates will be women: Representative Elise Stefanik, a Republican, began a campaign last month against the incumbent, Kathy Hochul.<\/p>\n

Special Elections Are Still Very Special (for Democrats)<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Despite not flipping any House seats, Democrats outperformed Ms. Harris\u2019s 2024 results in every House special election this cycle. Their wins, however, offer limited insight into what might happen in 2026.<\/p>\n

Special elections, which happen outside of regular election cycles to fill vacated seats, draw fewer voters than those in midterm or presidential years. Special election voters tend to be older and highly engaged politically, and they are more likely to be college educated. That has given Democrats a distinct advantage in recent years, and 2025 was no exception.<\/p>\n

Democrats did well in the 2025 special elections<\/h3>\n

Democratic candidates in this year\u2019s special congressional elections outperformed Kamala Harris\u2019s 2024 margins.<\/p>\n

Sources: Special election results are from The Associated Press, and 2024 presidential margins by congressional district are estimates from The New York Times.<\/span> The New York Times<\/span><\/p>\n

Democratic strength in special elections extended to lower-profile races held this year. In Virginia, Democrats secured 64 out of 100 seats in the House of Delegates. In Georgia, Democrats won two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission, the first time the party won a non-federal statewide office since 2006. Pennsylvania Democrats swept the major Bucks County contests, electing a Democratic district attorney for the first time. And, in Mississippi, Democrats broke the Republican supermajority in the State Senate.<\/p>\n

Odd-Numbered Years Are Still Very Odd (for Election Polls)<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Polling in off-year election cycles is challenging because it\u2019s hard to know who will turn out to vote. This year, the polls significantly overestimated the Republicans in the Virginia and New Jersey governor\u2019s races, which both had particularly high turnout for an off year. In 2021, polls had the opposite problem, as they overestimated Democrats.<\/p>\n

Polls missed in opposite directions in 2021 and 2025<\/h3>\n

Each dot is a poll from the relevant governor\u2019s election, positioned according to its polling error in the election.<\/p>\n

Notes: Chart includes polls fielded in October or November of the election cycle. Polling error refers to the difference between the actual result margin and the poll margin.<\/span> Sources: Polls from 2025 were collected by The New York Times, and polls from 2021 were collected by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research and 538.<\/span> The New York Times<\/span><\/p>\n

Polling misses don\u2019t necessarily carry over from cycle to cycle: Despite the leftward bias of the polls in 2021, they performed very well in 2022. After each election, pollsters look at the result and evaluate their performance, and then note where they went wrong. Analysis from groups like the American Association for Public Opinion Research frequently indicates that errors come from an incorrect sense of who shows up to vote. Pollsters then try to adjust for this error in the next election cycle.<\/p>\n

The errors of 2025 may prove largely irrelevant, however, as the midterm elections will feature a larger, very different pool of voters with a new set of races, and a new host of lessons for pollsters to learn.<\/p>\n

Off years are weird, and the polling errors they produce often are as well.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is there such a thing as an \u201coff year\u201d for U.S. elections? The elections in 2025 were not nearly as all-encompassing as last year\u2019s presidential race, nor as chaotic as what is expected from next year\u2019s midterms. But hundreds of elections were held in dozens of states, including local contests, mayoral races, special congressional elections<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38237,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[5723,4668,20985,1395],"class_list":{"0":"post-38236","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-crime-justice","8":"tag-cycle","9":"tag-election","10":"tag-eventful","11":"tag-takeaways"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38236"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38236\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/38237"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=38236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=38236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}