\n<\/p>\n
New research suggests Brexit has cost the government up to \u00a390bn a year in lost tax revenue, the Liberal Democrats have claimed.<\/p>\n
They have released the figures based on a new study by the National Bureau of Economic Research<\/strong> in the US that suggests the impact of Brexit on the UK economy has been worse than critics feared at the time.<\/p>\n The report has been written by five economists, including one from the Bank of England. They considered almost a decade\u2019s worth of data and in their summary they say:<\/p>\n These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time.<\/p>\n We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%.<\/p>\n These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process.<\/p>\n Comparing these with contemporary forecasts \u2013 providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning microliterature of social science predictions \u2013 shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.<\/p>\n The Liberal Democrats asked the House of Commons library, which conducts authoritative research on behalf of MPs, to quantify what a reduction in GDP by 6% or 8% would mean for tax revenues.<\/p>\n The library said that if GDP were 6.4% higher in 2024\/25 (the increase that would be need to compensate for the economy being 6% smaller than it otherwise would have been), tax revenues would have been \u00a365bn higher.<\/p>\n And if GDP were 8.7% higher (the increase needed to compensate for the economy being 8% smaller), tax revenues would have been \u00a390bn higher.<\/p>\n The library assumed the tax-to-GDP ratio remained at 34.7%.<\/p>\n Commenting on these figures, Ed Davey,<\/strong> the Lib Dem leader, said:<\/p>\n The most dishonest campaign in our history said it would save us \u00a3350m a week, but Brexit actually cost us \u00a3250m a day in 2025.<\/p>\n That is why we have the highest taxes ever, that is why we have sky-high bills, that is why we have a cost of living crisis.<\/p>\n Worst of all Labour know the cost of Brexit but refuse to do anything about it. My message ahead of the budget is clear: fix our broken relationship with Europe to end the cost of living crisis.<\/p>\n The Lib Dems want the UK to form a customs union with the EU. Next month they want to trigger a vote on this in the Commons.<\/p>\n Share<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n <\/span>Show key events only<\/p>\n Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n Ministers have backed plans from Heathrow Airport\u2019s owners that would see the M25 moved to make way for a third runway, PA Media reports. PA says:<\/p>\n Transport secretary Heidi Alexander<\/strong> rejected a rival proposal from Arora Group, saying Heathrow\u2019s own plans were \u201cthe most credible and deliverable option\u201d.<\/p>\n The Heathrow proposals involve building a 3,500-metre runway and require a new M25 tunnel and bridges to be built 130 metres west of the existing motorway.<\/p>\n The Arora plan, put forward by a group led by hotel tycoon Surinder Arora, was for a shorter, 2,800-metre runway that would not require diverting the M25.<\/p>\n In a written ministerial statement, Alexander said the proposal would still have \u201ca considerable impact\u201d on the motorway, and require the compulsory purchase of more homes around the airport.<\/p>\n A Heathrow spokesperson welcomed the decision, saying expanding the airport \u201cwill mean more connectivity, increased trade, improved passenger experience and a huge economic boost for the British businesses that will help design and build it\u201d.<\/p>\n But the spokesperson added that \u201cfurther clarity\u201d was needed on how the next phase of the project would be regulated, calling for \u201cdefinitive decisions\u201d from government and the Civil Aviation Authority by mid-December.<\/p>\n The planned third runway is estimated to cost \u00a333bn, including \u00a31.5bn on moving the M25, and is expected to be fully privately financed.<\/p>\n It will see Heathrow\u2019s capacity increase to 756,000 flights and 150 million passengers per year.<\/p>\n The government aims to make a decision on a planning application for Heathrow\u2019s expansion by the next election, with the third runway becoming operational by 2035.<\/p>\n In her statement explaining why she has chosen the Heathrow Airport Limited (HAL) scheme, not the Arora Group\/Heathrow West Limited (HWL) one, Alexander<\/strong> says:<\/p>\n Following a comparative assessment of the remaining proposals for Heathrow expansion, the government\u2019s view is that the Northwest runway scheme brought forward by Heathrow Airport Limited offers the most credible and deliverable option, principally due to the relative maturity of its proposal, the comparative level of confidence in the feasibility and resilience of its surface access plans, and the stronger comfort it provides in relation to the efficient, resilient and sustainable operations of the airport over the long-term.<\/p>\n The HAL scheme is considered comparatively more mature in its approach to road infrastructure. While the HAL scheme requires major works to the M25, assessment indicates that the HWL scheme would also have a considerable impact on the M25.<\/p>\n We know we must provide as much clarity and certainty for communities affected by expansion at Heathrow, as soon as possible. While HAL\u2019s scheme requires more land, it would require the acquisition of fewer residential properties around the airport than HWL\u2019s scheme.<\/p>\n The runway length proposed by HAL \u2013 up to 3.5km \u2013 is considered to be advantageous in terms of providing greater resilience and potential futureproofing for next-generation aircraft when compared with the 2.8km runway proposed by HWL.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n In the Commons Wes Streeting<\/strong>, the health secretary, has just started taking health questions. In response to a question from Labour\u2019s Laura Kyrke-Smith, he has just confirmed that the budget will including funding for \u201ca new generation of neighbourhood health centres to deal with the crumbling NHS we inherited\u201d. <\/em>(See 10.12am.)<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n There are two statements in the Commons today.<\/p>\n 12.30pm: Keir Starmer on the G20<\/p>\n After 1.30pm: Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, on Cop30.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n New research suggests Brexit has cost the government up to \u00a390bn a year in lost tax revenue, the Liberal Democrats have claimed.<\/p>\n They have released the figures based on a new study by the National Bureau of Economic Research<\/strong> in the US that suggests the impact of Brexit on the UK economy has been worse than critics feared at the time.<\/p>\n The report has been written by five economists, including one from the Bank of England. They considered almost a decade\u2019s worth of data and in their summary they say:<\/p>\n These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time.<\/p>\n We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%.<\/p>\n These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process.<\/p>\n Comparing these with contemporary forecasts \u2013 providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning microliterature of social science predictions \u2013 shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.<\/p>\n The Liberal Democrats asked the House of Commons library, which conducts authoritative research on behalf of MPs, to quantify what a reduction in GDP by 6% or 8% would mean for tax revenues.<\/p>\n The library said that if GDP were 6.4% higher in 2024\/25 (the increase that would be need to compensate for the economy being 6% smaller than it otherwise would have been), tax revenues would have been \u00a365bn higher.<\/p>\n And if GDP were 8.7% higher (the increase needed to compensate for the economy being 8% smaller), tax revenues would have been \u00a390bn higher.<\/p>\n The library assumed the tax-to-GDP ratio remained at 34.7%.<\/p>\n Commenting on these figures, Ed Davey,<\/strong> the Lib Dem leader, said:<\/p>\n The most dishonest campaign in our history said it would save us \u00a3350m a week, but Brexit actually cost us \u00a3250m a day in 2025.<\/p>\n That is why we have the highest taxes ever, that is why we have sky-high bills, that is why we have a cost of living crisis.<\/p>\n Worst of all Labour know the cost of Brexit but refuse to do anything about it. My message ahead of the budget is clear: fix our broken relationship with Europe to end the cost of living crisis.<\/p>\n The Lib Dems want the UK to form a customs union with the EU. Next month they want to trigger a vote on this in the Commons.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Zack Polanski<\/strong>, the Green leader, has staged a photocall at Westminter to highlight his party\u2019s call for wealth taxes in the budget. The Greens have published plans for what they call \u201cfair wealth taxation measures\u201d, which they claim could raise over \u00a330bn a year.<\/p>\n Their proposals include a 1% tax on wealth over \u00a310m, and a 2% tax from more than \u00a31bn, raising \u00a314.8bn; aligning capital gains tax with income tax, raising \u00a312bn; and introducing national insurance on investment income, raising \u00a36.1bn a year.<\/p>\n The Greens would spend the money on measures to alleviate the cost of living, including cutting energy bills, bringing energy and water companies into public ownership, getting rid of the two-child benefit cap and extending free school meals to all primary and secondary school pupils.<\/p>\n <\/span>The Green party leader Zack Polanski holding a photocall in Westminster this morning to promote his party\u2019s call for a wealth tax.<\/span> Photograph: Guy Smallman\/Getty Images<\/p>\n For a critique of these plans from the left, Aditya Chakrabortty\u2019<\/strong>s Guardian column last week is worth reading.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n At health questions today Wes Streeting is also likely to confirm a \u00a3300m capital investment for neighbourhood health centres in England. In a news release, the Department of Health and Social Care<\/strong> says the money \u2013 to be confirmed in tomorrow\u2019s budget \u2013 will help establish a neighbourhood health service. It says:<\/p>\n The chancellor will double down on the government\u2019s commitment of continuing to slash NHS waiting times in this week\u2019s budget – today confirming the investment for hundreds of new neighbourhood health centres that will deliver healthcare direct to people\u2019s doorsteps across the country \u2026<\/p>\n 250 new health \u2018one stop shops\u2019 will bring the right local combination from GPs, nurses, dentists and pharmacists together under one roof to best meet the needs of the community, starting in the most deprived areas.<\/p>\n The centres will be part of a new neighbourhood health service that will provide end-to-end care and tailored support – improving access to GPs, helping to prevent complications and avoid the frustration of being passed around the system.<\/p>\n The Financial Times says some of the new neighbourhood health centres will be funded with private capital. In their story, Chris Smyth<\/strong>, Laura Hughes <\/strong>and Gill Plimmer<\/strong> say the comparisons with PFI are likely to alarm some MPs.<\/p>\n NHS bosses have long pushed to be allowed to make greater use of external capital, including to rebuild hospitals and other large-scale projects.<\/p>\n But the Treasury has until now resisted. The change of heart will face fierce opposition from Labour MPs who have argued that reintroducing PFI, or a version of it, risks undermining confidence in the party\u2019s NHS reforms.<\/p>\n The initial deals, which will count against the government balance sheet, are described by government sources as a \u201ctoe in the water\u201d of private finance and justifiable on grounds of efficiency and speed.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Wes Streeting<\/strong>, the health secretary, is expected to tell the Commons later today that pre-packaged milkshakes and lattes will be covered by the sugar tax.<\/p>\n Currently milk-based drinks are exempt from the sugar tax, but this is due to end in the budget. Streeting is taking questions in the Commons later and, according to a report in the Times, he is expected to confirm the sugar tax extension.<\/p>\n Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, originally told MPs she was considering this option in her budget last year.<\/p>\n Explaining the origins of the sugar tax, PA Media says:<\/p>\n The sugar tax, also known as the soft drinks industry levy (SDIL), is a tax on pre-packaged drinks such as those sold in cans and cartons in supermarkets.<\/p>\n It applies to manufacturers and was introduced by the Conservative government in 2018 to help drive down obesity, including among children.<\/p>\n The government has also been looking at reducing the maximum amount of sugar allowed in drinks from five grams to four grams per 100ml, after which point they will be hit by the levy.<\/p>\n According to the Treasury, children\u2019s sugar intake in the UK is more than double the recommended maximum of no more than 5% energy from free sugar.<\/p>\n The existing levy has led to a 46% average reduction in sugar between 2015 and 2020 for those soft drinks that were to be brought under the rules.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n It is not just Labour attacking Reform UK. On Sunday Kevin Hollinrake<\/strong>, the Conservative party chair, posted a message on social media comparing a Reform UK badge to a Nazi swastika. In response to complaints, he took that post down, but replaced it with another (still up this morning) including a link to a Wikipedia page about a Nazi badge, implying the comparison has some merit. That did not quell the criticism, and yesterday Kemi Badenoch<\/strong>, the Tory leader, defended Hollinrake by saying he was just being funny.<\/p>\n But this morning James Cleverly<\/strong>, the shadow housing secretary, declined to fully defend Hollinrake. He said the Tory chair was \u201ctrying to make a point\u201d but it was \u201cnot necessarily the way I would have made it\u201d.<\/p>\n Cleverly told GB News:<\/p>\n The point that I think he is making is that \u2013 I mean, the situation with Nathan Gill, the former Reform leader in Wales who\u2019s now been imprisoned for corruption charges having been bribed by Russia to promote pro-Moscow propaganda \u2013 is something that is worth highlighting.<\/p>\n Kevin sought to do that in his own way. That\u2019s a decision that he made, but I think it is right, not that we criticise people who vote Reform \u2013 these are people who we need to win over, and indeed often win back to voting Conservative \u2013 but I think it is absolutely legitimate to ask some very, very serious questions about the motivation of some of the elected people within Reform.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Good morning. Yesterday Nigel Farage<\/strong>, the Reform UK leader, finally addressed the report published by the Guardian a week ago that quoted multiple people recalling him making racist or antisemitic comments when he was a pupil at Dulwich College in south London in the late 1970s and 1980s. Before publication, a Reform UK spokesperson told the Guardian the claims were \u201centirely without foundation\u201d. But Farage adopted a slightly different line when he was questioned by Gareth Lewis, BBC Wales\u2019s political editor, who was conducting a pooled interview (ie, one for use by all media outlets). Farage was still quite dismissive but, when pressed as to whether he ever racially abused other pupils at school, he replied: \u201cNot with intent.\u201d<\/p>\n There is a clip of the interview here, but this morning the Today programme played a fuller version (available here, from 7.16am) which is worth hearing. The questioning by Lewis was excellent.<\/p>\n Here is our story, by Daniel Boffey<\/strong>, Henry Dyer <\/strong>and Mark Blacklock<\/strong>.<\/p>\n And here is a timeline showing how Farage\u2019s response to these allegations has changed over time.<\/p>\n But racism was not the only difficult topic Farage had to face questions about yesterday. On Friday Nathan Gill, the former Reform UK leader in Wales, was sentenced to 10 and a half years in jail for taking bribes, when he was an MEP, to make speeches favourable to Russia, and Farage was also asked what he was doing to establish if other Brexit party MEPs had been offered bribes in the same way. (Gill was a Brexit party MEP when he took the bribes, but the Brexit party later turned into Reform UK.) Farage insists Gill was a one-off \u201cbad apple\u201d. Asked why he was not carrying out an investigation to see if anyone else in the party was not targeted in the same way, Farage<\/strong> replied:<\/p>\n I haven\u2019t got a police force, I haven\u2019t got access\u2026 I can\u2019t access your phone message, I can\u2019t access your emails \u2026 Unless I can do that, I can\u2019t investigate. You\u2019ve got to have somebody with investigatory powers.<\/p>\n Asked if he had asked people in his party about this, he replied:<\/p>\n Well, I\u2019ve asked everybody: have you ever taken money you shouldn\u2019t have taken from anybody \u2026 and no one said yes.<\/p>\n Asked if that was good enough, Farage deflected the question, and asked what Labour and the Tories were doing about people in their parties.<\/p>\n Labour says this is not good enough. In a statement issued in response to the Farage interview, Anna Turley<\/strong>, the Labour chair, said:<\/p>\n Nigel Farage assured the public his former right-hand man was decent and honest before he was found to have taken pro-Russian bribes. Now he says he\u2019s as sure as he can be that there\u2019s no pro-Kremlin links in Reform UK.<\/p>\n He was wrong before, and the public can have no confidence in his judgement now.<\/p>\n Farage must urgently take responsibility for ensuring his Party isn\u2019t becoming a vehicle for Putin\u2019s Russia and stop refusing to investigate pro-Russia links in Reform UK.<\/p>\n The Daily Mirror is also running this story, with a striking tabloid headline.<\/p>\n <\/span>Mirror headline<\/span> Photograph: Daily Mirror<\/p>\n Here is the agenda for the day.<\/p>\n 10am:<\/em> Jacqui Smith, the universities minister, gives evidence to the Commons education committee about university funding.<\/p>\n 11.30am:<\/em> Wes Streeting, the health secretary, takes questions in the Commons.<\/p>\n Noon:<\/em> Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.<\/p>\n After 12.30pm:<\/em> Keir Starmer is due to make a statement to MPs on the G20 summit.<\/p>\n Afternoon:<\/em> Starmer takes part in a video call with leaders from the \u201cCoalition of the Willing\u201d countries \u2013 nations willing to contribute to the defence of Ukraine in the event of peace settlement. They will discuss the latest peace proposals from the US.<\/p>\n If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (normally between 10am and 3pm at the moment), or message me on social media. I can\u2019t read all the messages BTL, but if you put \u201cAndrew\u201d in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.<\/p>\n If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.<\/p>\n I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can\u2019t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Updated at\u00a004.45 EST<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" New research shows Brexit has cost UK up to \u00a390bn per year in lost tax revenue, Lib Dems say New research suggests Brexit has cost the government up to \u00a390bn a year in lost tax revenue, the Liberal Democrats have claimed. They have released the figures based on a new study by the National Bureau<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":35141,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[4203,5615,342,9812,9811,132,96,124,3141,5577,871,101,1569],"class_list":{"0":"post-35140","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-health","8":"tag-90bn","9":"tag-brexit","10":"tag-cost","11":"tag-dems","12":"tag-lib","13":"tag-live","14":"tag-lost","15":"tag-politics","16":"tag-research","17":"tag-revenue","18":"tag-shows","19":"tag-tax","20":"tag-year"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35140"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35140\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/35141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Heidi Alexander chooses larger of two options for Heathrow 3rd runway, requiring part of M25 to be moved<\/h2>\n
New research shows Brexit has cost UK up to \u00a390bn per year in lost tax revenue, Lib Dems say<\/h2>\n
Green party renews call for wealth taxes<\/h2>\n
DHSC says budget will help fund new neighbourhood health centres for England<\/h2>\n
Streeting expected to confirm sugar tax being extended to cover milkshakes and other milk drinks<\/h2>\n
James Cleverly declines to full endorse Tory chair’s Nazi jibe about Reform UK<\/h2>\n
Labour condemns Nigel Farage after he ducks calls for probe into potential Reform UK links to Russia<\/h2>\n