\n<\/p>\n
Donald Trump has derided<\/span> NATO as an obsolete bunch of freeloaders for so long, it can be easy to forget that the transatlantic alliance remains the most powerful combined military force on Earth. And right now, it\u2019s really acting like it.<\/p>\n Last month, Russian drones violated the airspace of several NATO member countries, including Poland and Denmark; 10 days later, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace, staying there for 12 minutes. Such Russian air incursions are not new, but these were more aggressive and lasted longer than others in recent memory. Coming as negotiations over a possible settlement of the war in Ukraine were at a standstill, they looked like an attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to intimidate and divide the alliance.<\/p>\n But he may have misjudged.<\/p>\n \u201cI would say that it backfired on him,\u201d Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told me when we met at his office in Tallinn last week. He described how advanced F-35 jets, flown by the Italian air force, had intercepted the aged MiGs over Estonia\u2019s Vaindloo Island, about 16 miles off the mainland. Earlier, Polish and other NATO militaries had scrambled jets and shot down up to four of the nearly two dozen Russian drones that threatened the country. (The low kill ratio suggests that Poland needs better, or at least more efficient, air defenses, but the incursion did not go unanswered.) And in response to Russia\u2019s harassment, NATO established a more enhanced and coordinated defense of its eastern flank, including counter-drone measures, called Eastern Sentry.<\/p>\n \u201cThe violation of Poland\u2019s airspace earlier this week is not an isolated incident and impacts more than just Poland,\u201d the NATO commander, U.S. Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, said when he announced the new measures, adding, \u201cNATO is not waiting; we are acting.\u201d<\/p>\n Putin has surely noticed this resolve, and it might be worrying him. He had a two-hour phone call yesterday with Trump\u2014\u201cGreat progress was made,\u201d the American president wrote on Truth Social\u2014and the leaders agreed to meet in Budapest in the next few weeks to discuss a potential end to the war. This call came ahead of a planned meeting today between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Putin seems to understand that he must act with some urgency if he wants to keep the allies divided, which has always been his strategy.<\/p>\n Trump, whose commitment to the transatlantic alliance is predicated on how much the member states spend on defense, affirmed last month that the United States would defend Poland and the Baltic countries. He didn\u2019t elaborate on how, and at times seemed to qualify his remarks, so it was hardly an ironclad commitment. But considering that this is the same man who said last year that Russia should \u201cdo whatever the hell they want\u201d to NATO countries that don\u2019t meet his high defense-spending targets, this is progress.<\/p>\n Michal, whose country has approved a four-year investment plan to significantly increase its defense spending, lauded the show of support from the White House and seemed to delight in how it must have affected the Russian leader. \u201cThis is a strong message,\u201d he told me. Putin \u201cprobably didn\u2019t expect that.\u201d<\/p>\n Speaking with other <\/span>government officials and security experts in Europe, I found a cautious but clear sense that there is rare alignment between Trump and European leaders on how to pressure Putin\u2014maybe even enough to rid the Russian leader of his irrational fantasies of finally conquering Ukraine.<\/p>\n Of course, Trump has still not reversed his long-held antipathy toward a U.S.-led alliance that has helped secure peace in Europe for nearly eight decades. At his urging, many countries are moving quickly to build up their own military. But they\u2019re also calculating that they cannot count on Trump to protect them\u2014and perhaps not a future American president, either.<\/p>\n For the moment, at least, key NATO members are sounding the same notes, and Trump seems ready to join them. The head of Germany\u2019s foreign-intelligence service, Martin J\u00e4ger, told lawmakers this week that Russia was testing Europe\u2019s borders and its resolve. \u201cAt best, there is a frosty peace in Europe, which could turn into hot confrontation here and there at any moment. We must prepare ourselves for further escalations,\u201d he said in Berlin.<\/p>\n Some security experts have cast the Russian violations of European airspace as a win for Putin. With little effort, he has exposed seams in air defenses, and Russian military planners will now better understand NATO responses. That\u2019s useful intelligence should Moscow decide to launch full-on attacks. But Michal, whose country shares a border with Russia, is unbothered. \u201cThe most modern air fighters in the world were up, and they were there\u201d to intercept the Russian MiGs, he said. \u201cNATO is working,\u201d he added, \u201cand if something more is needed\u2014some more capabilities, some procedures\u2014then they will be there.\u201d<\/p>\n Poland\u2019s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Rados\u0142aw Sikorski, was more blunt. Russia made a \u201ctactically stupid and counterproductive\u201d move when it tested the alliance, he told an audience in London on Wednesday, ahead of a meeting of European defense ministers later this week. The result was a more unified Europe: \u201cWhat is he achieving? He is achieving the consolidation of public support for a policy of deterrence against Russia.\u201d Sikorski stood next to a downed Iranian-made Shahed-136 attack drone, used by Russia in Ukraine, and called for the construction of an integrated defense system, often called a \u201cdrone wall,\u201d along Europe\u2019s eastern flank. In light of Russia\u2019s recent provocations, it would be \u201cirresponsible\u201d not to do so, he said. (Sikorski is married to the Atlantic<\/em> writer Anne Applebaum.)<\/p>\n Since Russia invaded Ukraine (for the second time) in February 2022, Kyiv\u2019s NATO allies have constrained their direct military support, fearful of triggering Russian escalation, which could include the use of a tactical nuclear weapon. In hindsight, many Western intelligence officials think those fears look overblown and counterproductive. Vital time and ground were lost, and Russia still fell comically short of its initial plans to conquer Kyiv in 72 hours, decapitate its government, and install Kremlin loyalists.<\/p>\n \u201cYour three-day special military operation can\u2019t even conquer Donbas for 10 years now,\u201d Sikorski, who delights in trolling Moscow, said in a pointed warning to Russia at the United Nations last month. His full remarks should be read as a threat to shoot down manned aircraft as well, if Putin were reckless enough to fly them over Poland. \u201cIf another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on NATO territory, please don\u2019t come here to whine about it,\u201d he said. \u201cYou have been warned.\u201d<\/p>\n This is not isolated rhetoric. Trump has said he is considering sending Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine if the war is not settled soon. And he is not hiding his annoyance that the war, which he once boasted he could end in 24 hours, continues. Tomahawks would allow Ukraine to strike even deeper inside Russian territory. The Ukrainian military is reportedly already conducting strikes on Russian energy facilities thanks to more precise targeting intelligence provided by the United States. Perhaps Trump\u2019s affection for the Russian dictator is finally wearing thin, now that the U.S. president sees what American intelligence analysts have been saying for years: Putin has no intention of ending the war in Ukraine, because he thinks he\u2019s winning it. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump asked of Russia, \u201cDo they want to have Tomahawks going in that direction? I don\u2019t think so.\u201d<\/p>\n Michal told me that he sees daylight between the Russian and American presidents: \u201cPresident Trump has repeatedly mentioned that he\u2019s growing impatient with Russia\u2019s not acting to end the war, because everybody knows that the war would end the minute Putin would stop atrocities.\u201d<\/p>\n If Putin responds only to force, as most of the analysts who have studied him closely believe, then intercepting his jets and shooting down his drones conveyed a clear message. \u201cIt sent a strong political and military signal that the alliance takes this seriously and can react quickly,\u201d Kristian Fischer, a longtime official in the Danish Ministry of Defense and a former director of the country\u2019s top security think tank, told me. \u201cSeen from a transatlantic burden-sharing perspective, it was good that it was European military capabilities which were used.\u201d<\/p>\n Ukraine\u2019s allies are mounting<\/span> a new economic offensive as well, aimed at Putin\u2019s war machine. On Wednesday, the United Kingdom announced sanctions directed at Lukoil and Rosneft, Russia\u2019s two largest oil companies, in addition to the so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers that Russia uses to evade sanctions on the sale of its natural resources. Michal portrayed the economic response as possibly more powerful than the NATO security plan for the eastern flank. The hundreds of decrepit vessels in the shadow fleet are an indispensable component of Putin\u2019s war machine, providing nearly half the money needed to pay for military operations, by some estimates. Michal pointed to the balcony behind where we sat and joked that we could probably see the tankers sailing the Gulf of Finland.<\/p>\n \u201cThey are carrying Russia\u2019s money to wage the war,\u201d he said. \u201cPressure on revenues, Russia\u2019s energy revenues, tariffs: That\u2019s the key.\u201d<\/p>\n He praised the French navy for recently stopping one ship in the fleet. But after questioning the captain and crew, it sent the Benin-flagged vessel on its way.<\/p>\n Absent a coordinated international approach, Putin will continue to find ways to evade sanctions and sell oil to pay for his war. The Americans, for all the president\u2019s supportive talk of NATO lately, have left Europeans in a bind now that Washington is no longer providing Ukraine with weapons free of charge. European officials are persuaded that they need to tap more than $200 billion in frozen Russian-central-bank assets to pay for more weapons. Experts I spoke with said that could put Ukraine on a sustainable war footing for the next three years\u2014and help position Europe to protect itself, rather than relying so heavily on the Americans.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not clear if the Trump administration supports using the Russian funds. But it has signaled a possible willingness to impose stiffer sanctions, in concert with the Europeans.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are in a race now between how long can the Ukrainian military hold up versus how long can the Russian economy hold up,\u201d U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Meet the Press<\/em> last month, two days before the drone flights into Poland. Bessent said that with more sanctions and secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, \u201cthe Russian economy will be in total collapse, and that will bring President Putin to the table.\u201d<\/p>\n The unity might be fleeting: Trump could embrace Putin tomorrow and turn his back on Ukraine for good. In Denmark, security experts and officials I spoke with worry that Trump will move on from the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and return to his obsession with acquiring Greenland. Should the United States seize the territory of a NATO ally, that would effectively end the transatlantic alliance.<\/p>\n Carsten S\u00f8ndergaard, a career Danish diplomat who served as an ambassador to Russia and the permanent representative to NATO, was circumspect about recent events. Statements like the ones the Polish foreign minister has made are helpful, he told me. But actions are decisive. \u201cIt matters much what we do,\u201d he said. \u201cHave we changed or adjusted our force posture? Do [the Russians] believe that we are willing to do what we are supposed to do?\u201d<\/p>\n The answer to that question lies in Russia\u2019s assessment, not of Europe, but of the White House.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Donald Trump has derided NATO as an obsolete bunch of freeloaders for so long, it can be easy to forget that the transatlantic alliance remains the most powerful combined military force on Earth. And right now, it\u2019s really acting like it. Last month, Russian drones violated the airspace of several NATO member countries, including Poland<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29257,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[55],"tags":[7720,662,896,9392],"class_list":{"0":"post-29256","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-social-issues","8":"tag-answering","9":"tag-challenge","10":"tag-europe","11":"tag-putins"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29256\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29257"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naijaglobalnews.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}