\n <\/p>\n
From his spot in the long, orderly queue, Balch could just see the clinic\u2019s large double doors. One intermittently swung open as nurses and national guardsmen ushered the next person inside. The queue then inched forwards like a great lazy caterpillar to fill the vacated space.<\/p>\n
Balch kneaded his pockets. His turn would be a while yet.<\/p>\n
Identical clinics had opened worldwide following the parasite\u2019s discovery \u2014 a biological oddity colloquially dubbed \u2018the Slug\u2019, despite news broadcasts highlighting the microscopic creature\u2019s dendritic shape. How they\u2019d spotted the Slug, Balch couldn\u2019t explain. But he understood why it mattered.<\/p>\n
Apparently, the Slug had been randomly infecting half the population for centuries. It wasn\u2019t deadly, supposedly. Yet it dulled its host\u2019s every faculty, hampering their ability to do most things \u2014 including reasoning cogently, retaining information and even playing sports. How the Slug spread, the World Health Organization couldn\u2019t say. Yet that hadn\u2019t prevented scientists from developing a cure packaged in bubblegum-flavoured oral lozenges. The world\u2019s governments immediately enacted mass screenings among their populations, dosing Slug carriers on detection.<\/p>\n
Watching nurses shepherd another person through the clinic\u2019s doors, Balch wondered whether he had the Slug. He couldn\u2019t imagine finding himself smarter and more athletic overnight. The thought made his brain itch. He sighed, wishing the affair was over.<\/p>\n
\u201cBoring wait, huh?\u201d<\/p>\n
Read more science fiction from Nature Futures<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Balch turned. Behind him stood a youngish, bespectacled man in a tweed suit and bow tie meant for someone four times older.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you need entertaining,\u201d he said, \u201chow about a riddle?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWhy not,\u201d said Balch.<\/p>\n
\u201cPicture a game show,\u201d said the man, \u201cinvolving three doors. One conceals a million dollars. The others, nothing. You\u2019ll win whatever\u2019s behind the door you choose. With me so far?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cYup,\u201d said Balch. \u201cGuess correctly, make a bundle.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cPerfect. Suppose you select Door number 1. Before you turn the knob, the host opens Door number 2, revealing empty space. He then invites you to ditch your initial pick for Door number 3. The question is: should you switch?\u201d<\/p>\n
After a moment, Balch said, \u201cWeirdly enough, you should.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cInteresting. Why?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cBecause the original set-up\u2019s a one-in-three chance for the right door, but the second offers a two-in-three chance for Door 2. Much better odds.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s right,\u201d said the man, grinning.<\/p>\n
Balch smiled back. He\u2019d heard the solution before, but kept that to himself. All of a sudden, the man took Balch\u2019s arm, yanking him out of the queue.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat the\u2009\u2026?\u201d Balch sputtered.<\/p>\n
\u201cQuiet,\u201d whispered the man. \u201cNobody must overhear. It\u2019s a matter of vital importance. Most would dismiss me as a crank for what I\u2019m about to say. You, though! You\u2019ve got the right mindset. Because you understand the door puzzle, and how changing circumstances counter-intuitively redefine rational choice.\u201d<\/p>\n
Balch remained quiet. Interrupting seemed unwise.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou see,\u201d said the man, \u201cI\u2019m an economist. Yes, yes, funny occupation. Correctly predicted seven of the last four recessions, et cetera. Whatever. My friend, the reality is, we\u2019re facing probabilistic questions with existential stakes.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThink carefully about the following question: as you await screening\u2009\u2026 do you hope you have the parasite?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cOf course not!\u201d said Balch. \u201cIsn\u2019t that the whole point? To be clean, because it\u2019s better not to have a Slug infection?\u201d<\/p>\n
The economist\u2019s expression hardened.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou\u2019re mistaken. You should pray you\u2019re infected.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cNonsense!\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s paradoxical,\u201d said the economist, eyes widening. \u201cYou\u2019re unaware whether you\u2019re free of the parasite. But you do know what you\u2019re capable of at this moment. You have a handle on your own abilities \u2014 your cleverness and strength relative to others, and what that enables you to achieve. If you\u2019re clean, your abilities will remain unchanged after your screening. Yet, if you\u2019re infected, the calculus changes. You\u2019ll become better at everything you\u2019ve ever tried. As will half the world. You should therefore want to number among them.\u201d<\/p>\n
Balch\u2019s damp hands clenched.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s the rub,\u201d the economist continued. \u201cThis screening represents a point of no return. You\u2019ll soon learn whether what you are now is all you will be; whether your own mediocrity is mere inconvenience or inescapable fate. Could you live with the results of a clean diagnosis? Could anyone?\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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