\n<\/p>\n
As it has for more than a hundred years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its latest monthly jobs report on Friday.<\/p>\n
But the routine monthly update on the health of the US jobs market has been overshadowed by Donald Trump\u2019s firing of the agency\u2019s commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, hours after July\u2019s statistics were released last month.<\/p>\n
The BLS\u2019s data is parsed by Wall Street, Federal Reserve officials and company bosses across the US. It is also widely watched \u2013 and admired \u2013 internationally as a barometer of the US economy.<\/p>\n
Both liberal and conservative economists have criticized Trump\u2019s nominated replacement at the BLS and have raised concerns over what will happen to the agency after the dramatic shake-up. Here\u2019s what we know about what\u2019s happening to the bureau.<\/p>\n
The bureau reports key economic statistics through surveys of employers and prices. Every month, it releases data on the labor market, including the current unemployment rate, and the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of a basket of goods and services. This data is an important monthly snapshot of the US economy and how it changes over time.<\/p>\n
Last month, the bureau announced the US had added just 73,000 jobs in July \u2013 far lower than expected \u2013 and made big revisions to previously released stats on the labor market in May and June. The number of jobs added to the economy across those two months was dramatically cut by more than 250,000.<\/p>\n
Trump, who spent months boasting about the strength of the economy amid fears about the impact of his trade wars, was furious. \u201cToday\u2019s Job Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,\u201d he declared on social media.<\/p>\n
Hours after the numbers were released, Trump announced he was firing McEntarfer and that she would \u201cbe replaced with someone much more competent and qualified\u201d.<\/p>\n
Economists say that Trump\u2019s firing hasn\u2019t changed the bureau, yet. The White House has made other job cuts at the BLS, as it did throughout the federal workforce. Since Trump took office, the bureau has seen a hiring freeze and has lost 15% of its workforce.<\/p>\n
While the bureau said it was downsizing its data collection for CPI, it did not say it was making any significant changes to its survey to employers.<\/p>\n
Economists say that, for now, the bureau\u2019s operations have largely remained the same. William Watrowski, a longtime leader within the bureau, is currently its acting commissioner. But there are still many questions about the future of the bureau, especially after Trump announced his nomination for McEntarfer\u2019s replacement.<\/p>\n
Trump has nominated EJ Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, as the bureau\u2019s commissioner.<\/p>\n
Antoni was a contributor to Project 2025 \u2013 the Heritage Foundation\u2019s rightwing blueprint for reshaping the US government \u2013 and was a vocal critic of the bureau last year, claiming that it manipulated numbers to make them more favorable to Joe Biden and Democrats. Last November, Antoni said on Twitter that Elon Musk\u2019s \u201cdepartment of government efficiency\u201d needed to \u201ctake a chainsaw\u201d to the bureau.<\/p>\n
\u201cMonth after month, the government bean-counters under former-president Biden published overly optimistic estimates for everything from job growth to the size of the economy, only to have those numbers routinely \u2013 and quietly \u2013 revised down later,\u201d Antoni wrote in May.<\/p>\n
When announcing his appointment, Trump said Antoni \u201cwill ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST AND ACCURATE\u201d.<\/p>\n
Antoni has yet to be confirmed by Congress, and a confirmation date has not been set.<\/p>\n
Revisions are standard to the bureau\u2019s reporting of the labor market, which is based on surveys of employers throughout the country.<\/p>\n
Large revisions often happen when employers take more time to complete the bureau\u2019s surveys or revise their own figures due to changing circumstances. Economists have pointed out that uncertainty can lead to larger revisions. The pandemic, for example, saw jobs figures in flux as employers were handling different shutdown laws and the spread of the virus.<\/p>\n
The impact of Trump\u2019s tariffs on data collection could be a major factor in the revisions seen earlier this year. Businesses have been reporting rollercoaster levels of uncertainty over tariff policy, with sentiment among US small businesses dipping down in the spring before going up again in the summer.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve gone through periods where there were larger revisions before,\u201d said Michael Madowitz, principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute who served on the bureau\u2019s data users advisory committee before it was dissolved by the Trump administration. \u201cThis is like so standard, and the idea that it\u2019s what actually set off this big political kerfuffle \u2013 this is a really unprecedented political situation.\u201d<\/p>\n
This isn\u2019t the first time the bureau has been accused of manipulating numbers for politics. In the mid-90s, Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chair at the time, criticized the way the bureau was calculating the CPI. Greenspan argued that the bureau was overestimating CPI, making inflation look higher than it actually was.<\/p>\n
Thomas Stapleford, a historian at the University of Notre Dame and author of The Cost of Living in America: A Political History of Economic Statistics, pointed out that Greenspan\u2019s criticism led to a series of hearings in which the bureau\u2019s methodology came under question and debate. There were congressional hearings and a committee of economists was formed to investigate the methodology.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s all this detailed look at digging into the methodology by these outside experts and also testimony from [the bureau],\u201d Stapleford said. \u201cIn my mind, if you have questions about the methodology, that\u2019s the way to approach it.\u201d<\/p>\n
But Trump has pushed the bureau into uncharted waters. Stapleford noted McEntarfer\u2019s firing was the first time the president fired a bureau commissioner.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat the administration, in the eyes of critics, is doing is pushing the numbers in a particular direction. Not for reasons that it can justify publicly in terms of methodology, but simply because it would like a different outcome,\u201d Stapleford said. \u201cThat\u2019s a really big deviation from how the bureau has operated in the past.\u201d<\/p>\n
The commissioner isn\u2019t involved in much of the day-to-day operations of the bureau. A new leader could have major sway over how the bureau collects and reports data in the long term, but there are protections in place, and any significant changes would be subject to public scrutiny.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe commissioner isn\u2019t directly involved in the data calculation. Most of the BLS staff are long-term civil servants. They\u2019ve been there a long time, they have various protections around them,\u201d Stapleford said. \u201cIf the new commissioner started to force major methodological changes, I think that would raise a lot of red flags if those changes were controversial.\u201d<\/p>\n
But even if major changes aren\u2019t made immediately, the fact that Trump has called the bureau\u2019s data into question could risk confusing Americans over whether the data can be trusted.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt takes a whole lot longer to build credibility than to lose. I don\u2019t think any of the experts involved at this point are at all worried about the credibility of BLS\u2019s work, but I know a whole lot less about what\u2019s filtering down to the average person right now,\u201d Madowitz said.<\/p>\n
As an example, Madowitz pointed out how the science around the climate crisis has been clear.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut having a one-side, other-side public position on what the science says has left the public really confused,\u201d Madowitz said. \u201cIt would be really bad if that\u2019s how we decided to understand the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ironically, it looks like August\u2019s jobs report could be a repeat of July\u2019s.<\/p>\n
New data on the labor market released by payroll firm ADP on Thursday showed sluggish growth in August for private payrolls, a sign that Friday\u2019s job report could show some stagnation. Economists are predicting 75,000 new openings in August, on par with the 73,000 openings in July.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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