\n<\/p>\n
At their meeting in Beijing today, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin made a show of how close they\u2019ve become. Putin and Xi, referring to each other as friends, praised the strength of their relationship as their two countries advanced an agreement to build a gas pipeline that would bind their economies even more tightly together.<\/p>\n
The continued friendship between the two leaders is a stark reminder that Donald Trump, despite his attempted outreach to Russia and talk of \u201cununiting\u201d America\u2019s two major rivals, hasn\u2019t redrawn the global map of strategic alliances to his advantage. But here\u2019s the curious thing: Neither has China.<\/p>\n
Within weeks of the inauguration, many observers\u2014I was one of them\u2014warned that by courting Russia and punishing Europe, Trump might be handing the world and, most alarmingly, Washington\u2019s traditional allies to China. That Beijing would welcome such an opportunity seemed obvious: China had often sought to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its friends, but lately Xi had strained China\u2019s relations with Europe by supporting Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. Now Beijing could patch things up by presenting itself as a more reliable partner than Washington.<\/p>\n
But to the extent that Beijing has made any such effort so far, it was short-lived. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the European Union\u2019s top diplomat in July that China could not accept a Russian loss in Ukraine, because that might lead the United States to focus its energies on containing China\u2019s rise. This position on Ukraine, combined with a hard stance on trade issues, has left China unable to improve its ties with Europe, as was evident at a Beijing summit with EU leaders in July, during which the two sides found hardly any common ground.<\/p>\n
China hasn\u2019t done much to shake up American alliances in Asia, either. Beijing has continued to alienate its neighbors by aggressively asserting claims to nearly all of the South China Sea; in August, two Chinese naval vessels collided there as they tried to chase away a Philippine coast-guard boat. South Korea\u2019s newly elected president, Lee Jae Myung, has expressed an interest in improving relations with China, but rather than seize on that, Xi has made clear that his government\u2019s sympathies lie with Seoul\u2019s primary adversary, North Korea, whose dictator, Kim Jong Un, will visit China this week for a celebration of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Asia. In recent days, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Tianjin\u2014his first trip to China in seven years. But Modi is not likely to rush into Xi\u2019s arms, given China\u2019s role in supplying India\u2019s chief rival, Pakistan, with fighter jets and missiles used in the recent clashes over Kashmir. New Delhi is embroiled in a trade dispute with Trump, but India remains a member of the Quad, a partnership with the U.S., Japan, and Australia aimed at counterbalancing Beijing in Asia.<\/p>\n
This pattern of decision making suggests that Beijing has not made much of Trump\u2019s disruptions to American alliances. Rather, China is still treating the established democratic powers\u2014the United States, the European Union, Japan, and their partners\u2014as the main impediments to its global ambitions. Within that strategic calculus, Putin remains a crucial partner for China. Last week, Xi told Vyacheslav Volodin, the chair of the Russian Duma, that the two countries should \u201cjointly safeguard their security\u201d and \u201cwork for a more just and equitable international order\u201d\u2014in other words, one no longer dominated by the U.S. and its allies, according to an official Chinese-government summary of his comments.<\/p>\n
That Washington, under Trump, has abandoned the language, and seemingly the agenda, of shared values with fellow democracies does not seem to have altered this calculation. Chinese leaders still see Western countries \u201cas a unit and do not see that there\u2019s enough profit to be gained by trying to play them against one another,\u201d Sergey Radchenko, an expert on China-Russia relations at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, told me. As a consequence, he added, Chinese leaders \u201cneed Russia as a counterbalance to that.\u201d Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argues that to Xi and Putin, Trump is simply another president seeking to extend and maintain U.S. dominance. From the perspective of China\u2019s leaders, the Americans and Europeans \u201clike us to be weak, poor, and looking up to them, which we don\u2019t accept,\u201d Gabuev told me.\u201cThat\u2019s the narrative that\u2019s really impossible to change\u201d under current circumstances.<\/p>\n
China does seek to extend its influence within the global South at American expense. On Monday, Xi criticized \u201chegemonism and protectionism\u201d\u2014a not-so-veiled dig at Washington\u2014and proposed a new initiative to strengthen the role of developing countries in international decision-making. But neither Russia nor China seems to have fully clocked the opportunity that Trump\u2019s withdrawal of the United States from global leadership presents. For Russia, courting better relations with American allies might help relieve the economic pressure that sanctions have imposed. In China\u2019s case, a more subtle and flexible foreign policy could scramble long-established relationships and reshape the global order.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s disdain for foreign-policy precedent and erratic flip-flops will continue to open opportunities for Xi and Putin to expand their global influence at Washington\u2019s expense. But wooing Western partners would likely involve some compromises that these dictators are probably unwilling to make. China remains intent on, for example, pursuing technological superiority, upgrading its military, and partnering with Putin\u2014all policies that stand in the way of improving relations with American allies.<\/p>\n
By continuing to align with each other and treat the West as a unified adversary with common values and interests, Xi and Putin are, in effect, holding the U.S. alliance system together. They are also leaving open the possibility that the next U.S. president can repair the global order that sustained American dominance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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