\n<\/p>\n
The aggressive push by President Trump and Republicans in Texas to flip as many as five congressional seats by drawing new maps ahead of the midterm elections threatens to set off a nationwide redistricting arms race. But it is Republicans who have a clear advantage over Democrats in the total number of states that could redraw their maps.<\/p>\n
The process of drawing new legislative maps \u2014 which is typically done at the beginning of every decade, after the census \u2014 varies from state to state. And not every state has the right conditions to participate in the emerging redistricting battle.<\/p>\n
Redrawing a map in the middle of the decade without a court order is likely a highly partisan affair, requiring one party to control both the governor\u2019s mansion and the statehouse. The state must have seats that could be drawn into a partisan advantage without running afoul of Voting Rights Act protections for communities of color. And it must also be one where the legislature holds the power to draw the maps.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how the list of states that could consider redistricting gets narrowed down.<\/p>\n
Note: States with single-party control include those with trifecta governments \u2014 where a single party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of state legislature \u2014 or a veto-proof supermajority in the state legislature.<\/p>\n
As the country has become more polarized, trifectas \u2014 when one party has control over the governor\u2019s office and both chambers of the legislature \u2014 have become more common. Republicans currently hold 23 trifectas, while Democrats hold 15.<\/p>\n
In rare cases, control of the legislature alone can give a party complete control over the redistricting process, either through specific state laws or through a supermajority, which enables the legislature to override a governor\u2019s veto.<\/p>\n
For example, in Kentucky, which has a Democratic governor, the Republican supermajority functions largely as a trifecta because it needs only a simple majority to override the governor\u2019s veto.<\/p>\n
In North Carolina, Republicans are a few votes shy of a supermajority in one chamber but still control the redistricting process because the state\u2019s congressional maps are not subject to veto and therefore can be passed by a simple majority in the legislature.<\/p>\n
While some highly polarized states are willing to join the redistricting fray, many are limited by simple math: They need a seat held by the opposing party that could be flipped through redistricting.<\/p>\n
States with just one congressional seat \u2014 Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming \u2014 have no way to change the map; it\u2019s just the state\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n
In other states, one party controls all the congressional seats, leaving no room to maneuver. This is true of Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico and Rhode Island, which have all-Democratic delegations, and Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia, which have all-Republican delegations. (Although New Hampshire has an all-Democratic delegation, Republicans currently control its state government.)<\/p>\n
Even where it looks as if a seat could be flipped, there are restrictions on how maps may be drawn. The federal Voting Rights Act requires states to preserve the rights of minority communities, effectively limiting the legislature\u2019s ability to gerrymander. And in many states, there are simply too many voters from the opposing party to completely eliminate their representation in Congress, no matter how ruthlessly the lines are drawn.<\/p>\n
So let\u2019s focus on states where one party has complete control of government but the opposing party holds some congressional seats. Can they start drawing new maps?<\/p>\n
Not exactly.<\/p>\n
In some states, an independent commission, rather than the legislature, draws the legislative map. These commissions were created, in many cases by referendum, to reduce the role of partisan politics from the redistricting process \u2014 essentially, to prevent the kind of gerrymandering that both parties are now considering.<\/p>\n
Nine states have some form of redistricting commission: five Democratic trifecta states, two states with divided government, and two Republican trifecta states.<\/p>\n
In response, some Democratic states have embarked on efforts to work around their commissions.<\/p>\n
In California, where voters approved an independent commission in 2010, Democratic leaders are moving to amend the State Constitution to empower the legislature to redraw the maps to head off Texas\u2019 redistricting threat. That amendment process, if successful, could conclude in time for new maps to be installed before the 2026 midterms.<\/p>\n
Democrats in New York have also threatened to change the state\u2019s Constitution to disband its independent commission, in place since 2014. But because of a different state law, that change would not take effect until after the midterms.<\/p>\n
The other Democratic trifecta states with a commission, Colorado, New Jersey and Washington, have not moved or pledged to return the redistricting power to the legislature.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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