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Solar power is booming in Pakistan. Its share of electricity generation more than tripled in just three years, climbing from four percent in 2021 to 14 percent in 2024 \u2014 one of the highest percentages in Asia, according to a\u00a0Reuters analysis of data from the British research group Ember. And panel imports doubled in a single year,\u00a0Ember reports, making Pakistan, with the world\u2019s fifth-largest population, one of the biggest solar markets in the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n
A confluence of forces has driven this growth. Pakistanis had long lived with overpriced and unreliable power delivered by a creaking grid. When Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion of Ukraine caused gas and coal prices to spike, Pakistanis\u2019 bills jumped even higher, and then higher again when the government removed subsidies that had cushioned consumers from the worst of those hikes. At the same time, a glut of cheap Chinese solar panels gave many Pakistanis an alternative to grid power for the first time.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Renewables First, an energy and environment think tank in Islamabad, not only has been tracking Pakistan\u2019s solar revolution, it also is pressing for policy changes that would make its transition faster and smoother. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, program director Muhammad Mustafa Amjad says reforms that increase grid flexibility and better match supply with demand would make cheap, clean energy available to more people while preventing further price hikes for those still reliant on centrally provided power.\u00a0<\/p>\n
If officials begin to better coordinate its transition, Amjad believes, Pakistan\u2019s experience can be a model for other developing nations. \u201cGlobal South countries don\u2019t have to be the laggards,\u201d he says. \u201cThey can actually be the leaders of the energy transition.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Muhammad Mustafa Amjad.<\/span> Yale Environment 360<\/strong>: Can you give me a sense of how big and how fast the recent growth in Pakistanis\u2019 solar power use has been?\u00a0<\/p>\n Muhammad Mustafa Amjad<\/strong>: It\u2019s quite unprecedented in terms of speed and scale. Pakistan has imported\u00a0almost 45 gigawatts worth of solar panels over the last five or six years, which is equal to the total capacity of its electricity grid. Almost 34 gigawatts have come in only in the last couple of years.\u00a0<\/p>\n It\u2019s a very bottom-up revolution. This is not government deciding this is the route to take. And it\u2019s not being driven by climate concerns, it\u2019s all about the economics. Renewables are out-competing the traditional sources of energy. So all of a sudden, it makes financial sense to adopt renewables, to double down on renewables. Energy transitions in the Global South were always seen as being very top-down, with financial institutions and banks and the International Monetary Fund coming in and piloting projects, pushing governments for policies to encourage clean energy. Now, all of a sudden it\u2019s the people and markets that have decided solar is the solution.\u00a0<\/p>\n Subscribe to the E360 Newsletter for weekly updates delivered to your inbox. Sign Up.<\/p>\n e360<\/strong>: How did this massive adoption of solar come about?\u00a0<\/p>\n Amjad<\/strong>: A lot of factors came together to create a perfect storm of conditions. At the core, it\u2019s because electricity from the grid was so expensive. The price went up almost 155 percent over the last few years. People were paying more for electricity than they were for rent. At the same time, China was producing a glut of solar panels, and Chinese companies were competing for new markets. Pakistan was lucrative for them because of our large [251 million] population. And the Pakistani government helped by not taxing Chinese solar panels. So people were looking for cheaper alternatives and they found one in solar.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe people who benefit the most from [solar] are the ones who were not connected to the grid or had less reliable service.\u201d<\/p>\n It\u2019s becoming a part of a nice dance now. Any new construction includes a solar power system. I was talking to a politician the other day from a remote area, and she said, \u201cPreviously, constituents always asked us for sewing machines\u201d they could use to earn money. \u201cNow they ask for a solar panel.\u201d It\u2019s no longer a luxury item. It\u2019s become a necessity. In some parts of the country, it\u2019s customary for a family to give a dowry when their daughter gets married. Now, along with a TV and a washing machine, solar panels are part and parcel of this.<\/p>\n e360<\/strong>: In 2022,\u00a040 million Pakistanis still didn\u2019t have access to electricity. And the grid is unreliable even for those who are connected. What has it been like to live with those problems, and how did they help drive people toward solar?\u00a0<\/p>\n Amjad<\/strong>: We call it load shedding, it\u2019s essentially rolling blackouts. The power could be shut off for an hour, for four hours, six hours. There were certain rural areas where load shedding was in excess of 12 to 14 hours per day. And we have lots of areas where grid access isn\u2019t really available at all. So people were depending on diesel generators. They were on the lookout for something cleaner and cheaper.\u00a0<\/p>\n e360<\/strong>: Who\u2019s buying solar panels, and where?\u00a0<\/p>\n Amjad<\/strong>: This is across the spectrum. In the cities, whoever owns a home, they\u2019ve already solarized or are intending to solarize or are saving for solar. It\u2019s expected for the cities and the rich to lead the way. But the people who benefit the most from it are the ones who were not connected to the grid or had less reliable service. That\u2019s where the sun has impacted lots of lived realities. A couple of case studies done in some villages in lower Punjab and upper Sindh found almost 50 percent of the households there have already solarized. These are massive numbers. There was one story where people put a solar system on the back of a tractor and it was being shared between three different households that [used] it to charge their fans and stuff. Another case study, people were using a panel during the day for field work, education work, and then at the end of the day the farmer would take it back to his house.\u00a0<\/p>\n How a solar revolution in farming is depleting world\u2019s groundwater. Read more.<\/p>\n That kind of mixed use, and sharing mechanisms \u2014 that\u2019s the true revolution that has happened. But a lot more needs to be done to improve access. The government could play a role by providing subsidized systems or loans for poorer households.\u00a0<\/p>\n e360<\/strong>: What are people doing with the power they\u2019re now able to generate?\u00a0<\/p>\n Amjad<\/strong>: Our farmers depend on irrigation systems. There are almost 2 million tube wells across Pakistan, and some estimates suggest almost half have already been solarized. Primarily because the wells are usually community owned \u2014 so a tube well for a whole village or for six to seven fields. People can club money together, or [the system is] owned by wealthy landlords who have enough spare capital. And the shift is often from a diesel generator to solar, so it makes more sense than going from the grid to solar.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThis solar rush is going to be followed by a battery rush, and people will have a lot more control over their electricity.\u201d<\/p>\n Another big area is cooling. Pakistan is a very climate-vulnerable country, and with the extreme temperatures we are experiencing, people want air conditioning and inverters, which are an energy-efficient type of fan. So a lot of lifestyles have been improved.\u00a0<\/p>\n It\u2019s also important to understand the battery revolution that\u2019s happening. Pakistan has imported almost $95 million worth of batteries in the last three months. So this solar rush is going to be followed by a battery rush, and together they\u2019ll create a whole parallel system where people will have a lot more control over their electricity. And after the battery revolution, very soon we\u2019ll be talking about an electric vehicle revolution. Pakistan is a huge market for three-wheelers and two-wheelers, it\u2019s ripe for electrification.<\/p>\n e360<\/strong>: Why has the price of grid power been so high in Pakistan?\u00a0<\/p>\n Amjad<\/strong>: In the 2010s, Pakistan got a lot of private operators to set up thermal power plants, mainly coal and gas, and we offered them quite lucrative deals. These are long-term contracts \u2014 20 or 25 years [in which the government must pay even when the plants\u2019 power is not needed]. Then when the Russia-Ukraine crisis began, fuel prices shot up for both gas and coal. And because of fiscal troubles, the government agreed to an IMF loan package that required removal of electricity subsidies for consumers, which had shielded them from some of the expense. So all the costs had to be passed on.\u00a0<\/p>\n Solar panels outside a home in Jacobabad, Pakistan.<\/span> e360<\/strong>: With more people generating their own power, there is concern that Pakistan\u2019s utilities are losing operating revenue. What would the implications of that be?\u00a0<\/p>\n Amjad<\/strong>: Over the past year we\u2019ve seen a 4 to 5 percent decrease in grid demand. As more people defect from the grid, the total costs are shared by a smaller number of consumers. So grid electricity gets more expensive, and more consumers leave. This creates what\u2019s called a utility death spiral. And we don\u2019t want those left on the grid to have to pay for this.\u00a0<\/p>\n So we need massive reform. In developed countries with a high percentage of renewables in some regions, government agencies have had to modernize themselves and put the right infrastructure in place. In Pakistan, it\u2019s been very unregulated, unstructured. That needs to change within the next two years \u2014 otherwise all the inefficiencies, and the mismanagement and lack of planning are going to cause that spiral, and those who still rely on the grid will bear the cost. We need a lot of action by the government and utilities to prevent that.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cPakistan wasn\u2019t expecting to do this for at least 10 or 20 years. It was always supposed to be the U.S. and China and Europe first.\u201d<\/p>\n It\u2019s still not too late for the grid to adapt. Utilities have always believed energy is best provided by big power plants, a lot of firm capacity and base load. Now it\u2019s more about flexible supply to meet flexible demand. It\u2019s a very different equation. A lot of unlearning has to happen. The grid has to reinvent itself and start providing the support required for distributed [decentralized] generation \u2014 balancing and demand-supply management and all of those flexibility options, even utility-level batteries. It\u2019s quite ambitious, but there is no other option for Pakistan.<\/p>\n e360<\/strong>: Will solar power displace energy from fossil fuels, or is it additive?\u00a0<\/p>\n Amjad<\/strong>: Fossil fuels are already being displaced. The coal power plants have become stranded assets \u2014 they\u2019re being utilized at rates under 20 percent. We have gas-fired power plants where utilization is as low as 15 percent.\u00a0<\/p>\n e360<\/strong>: What can other Global South countries learn from Pakistan\u2019s experience?\u00a0<\/p>\n As drought shrivels hydro, this African nation pivots to solar. Read more.<\/p>\n Amjad<\/strong>: Pakistan wasn\u2019t expecting to do this for at least 10 or 20 years. It was always supposed to be the U.S. and China and Europe first. But Global South countries can actually be the leaders of the energy transition.\u00a0Pakistan is proving just that. We\u2019ve positioned ourselves as early adopters. It\u2019s an excellent model because a lot of the conditions we\u2019ve seen here \u2014 like the supply glut from China \u2014 exist for other developing economies, too. I think what they can do is plan for it accordingly, with certain safeguards, certain mechanisms. Government can proactively play a role.\u00a0<\/p>\n This is a revolution to celebrate. There\u2019s a lot that could be improved on, a lot that can be learned from our experience. I hope we\u2019ll be able to talk about Pakistan as a good example, not as \u201cthings to avoid, or things not to do.\u201d But that depends on how we go about our work in the next few years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Solar power is booming in Pakistan. Its share of electricity generation more than tripled in just three years, climbing from four percent in 2021 to 14 percent in 2024 \u2014 one of the highest percentages in Asia, according to a\u00a0Reuters analysis of data from the British research group Ember. 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\n Agora Energiewende<\/span><\/p>\n
\n Asim Hafeez \/ Bloomberg via Getty Images<\/span><\/p>\n